KEY POINTS:
What is the central issue in the election?
Some might think it would be the recent arrival of peace in Ireland after all the long years of violence followed by more than a decade of a tortuous peace process. But not a bit of it: as has always been the case, voters indicate that they care far more about domestic issues than about Northern Ireland, Anglo-Irish relations, peace and all that.
The vote will instead be a judgment on how the outgoing Government has handled the last decade of prosperity, which has transformed the Irish Republic into one of western Europe's best-performing economies. To personalise things, many will be passing judgment on the performance of Bertie Ahern, who as leader of Fianna Fail has helped steer the economy and the peace process.
Who is challenging Ahern?
The alternative Taoiseach (PM) is Enda Kenny, leader of Fine Gael, the second largest party. In 2002 Ahern inflicted such a crushing defeat on Fine Gael that some thought it might fall apart. But, against all expectations, Kenny has rebuilt the party from the ground up, impressing everyone with his determination and stamina.
The surprise at his new energy was heightened by the fact that he has spent a long time in the Dail but has only two years of ministerial office.
So who's winning?
A few months ago Ahern seemed to be coasting to an unprecedented third election victory until he and Fianna Fail took a dip in the polls. Kenny looked to have the wind in his sails and Ahern has lost substantial ground. He was also beleaguered by new allegations of financial impropriety but then it seemed to go all Fianna Fail's way: voters lost interest in the sleaze issue and concentrated on more conventional matters.
Ahern scored a decisive victory over Kenny in a televised debate last week. An opinion poll shows a Fianna Fail surge, indicating voters are giving Ahern the edge over Kenny on issues such as representing the country well, keeping taxes low and, crucially, successfully managing the economy.
Why do Irish elections always seem to produce coalitions?
That's certainly the recent pattern and it's true that 1977 was the last time any party won an overall majority. Since then the country has been run by coalitions or minority governments, or by Fianna Fail with the support of independents. For decades, Fianna Fail was adamant it would not go into coalitions but, eventually, it had to accept the numbers were not there and formed governmental partnerships.
Ahern's last two governments have been coalitions between his party and the Progressive Democrats. This is a small right-wing outfit that came into existence to oppose Fianna Fail and has, ironically, wound up sitting alongside them in government for a decade. Although Fianna Fail is always the largest party, five others receive significant votes: Fine Gael, the Progressive Democrats, Irish Labour, the Greens and Sinn Fein.
How is Sinn Fein faring?
The party is making steady progress and, with consistent opinion poll support of up to 10 per cent, can realistically hope to double its Dail strength of five seats. The party has been hoping for a hung Dail in which it might hold the balance of power: most of all it hopes that Ahern could not cobble together a government without it and would invite it into a coalition or, more likely, a less formal arrangement.
But Ahern and other Fianna Fail ministers have insisted they will make no governing deal with Sinn Fein. Even so, a large number of voters conclude that realpolitik could prevail over election promises, indicating they would not be surprised if Fianna Fail do a deal with Sinn Fein.
So what will the outcome be?
The most likely result is a return of the present Government. For that to happen, Ahern would need to maintain his recent surge while his Progressive Democrats partners would also need to do well.
The next most likely is a success for Kenny and Fine Gael. This would need a late rally on his part, as well as a new surge for the Irish Labour party.
- INDEPENDENT
