KEY POINTS:
At the exact time we discover next week whether or not New Zealand author Lloyd Jones has won the Man Booker prize for Mr Pip (8am Wednesday), the leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum, including Helen Clark, will be on the island of Vava'u in Tonga for a
private retreat.
The two events are not entirely unrelated.
Jones' book is set in bleak Bougainville, where rebellion against Papua New Guinea led to 10 years of civil war.
The war ended when New Zealand brokered peace talks in 1996, an autonomous Bougainville Government and a referendum on political independence, to be held sometime between 2011 and 2016.
It was a process that New Zealanders almost universally embraced, with National's Don McKinnon beginning the process and Labour's Phil Goff signing off the agreement in 2001.
The Bougainville experience was the start of a new type of contemporary role for New Zealand in the Pacific, or the exemplar of what it could be.
It gave the brokering skills of New Zealanders a chance to shine, it met New Zealand's desire to make a difference, and it was a local solution reached by the local players, not one that was imposed.
It secured critical domestic support in New Zealand for prioritising devoting time and resources on our own neighbourhood.
High-profile engagements by New Zealand since then have had less of a glow to them.
When there has been a sense of a job well done - in East Timor, the Solomon Islands and helping to restore democracy in Fiji - a riot or another coup has undone much of that effort.
Since the Bougainville experience, New Zealand has also become more closely aligned with Australia, which plays hardball with its politics and diplomacy.
It is curious that while Clark has deliberately forged a more independent foreign policy beyond the Pacific, within the Pacific the approach has become conjoined with Australia because of the close practical co-operation, particularly in the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands.
It means, however, that as a partner to Australia, New Zealand has diminished its brokering role, perhaps at a time when it is needed most.
While the forum is not confronted with a single big crisis, as it has been several times in the past, it is hard to recall a forum where relationships among so many members have been so poor, largely involving Australia.
The coup in Fiji has put a strain on relations and is expected to dominate much of the forum, especially if coup leader Frank Bainimarama attends.
But equally as critical are the relationships between Australia and other Melanesian countries - the Solomon Islands and PNG in particular - which are more than poor. They are now bordering on the dysfunctional after rows in the past two years over the failed extradition of the Solomons' Attorney-General, Julian Moti - aided and abetted by PNG - and RAMSI.
Added to the rifts among key players is a mistrust around the intentions of Australia and New Zealand in the Pacific Plan, and the result is open discussion among the Melanesian countries of a sub-union, which could undermine the drive for greater regional co-operation under the plan.
The notion was discussed by Vanuatu's former Deputy Prime Minister, Sato Kilman, who was guest speaker recently at the Pacific Co-operation Foundation annual lecture.
He said the development of the Melanesian Spearhead Group could be seen as a response to the increasingly polarised views on how to better manage the region.
It could also be seen, he said, as an "emergence of a political will to offer an alternative to hegemonic domination on regional issues".
Clark's well-worked diplomatic skills could be especially valuable at this summit, whether or not Australian Prime Minister John Howard attends.
It is difficult to see why he would go, unless there was some strong domestic advantage to be gained for the looming election.
The sharp end of the rift is related to the escape of Moti who was facing sex charges and is now driving some of the pressure being applied to RAMSI.
Howard has not forgiven PNG's Sir Michael Somare for his defence forces flying Moti to the Solomons last year after the Solomons Attorney-General skipped bail - and who can blame him?
But the deterioration in relations between Australia and key players in the region is not due to minor spats. They are serious rifts that are infecting the sense of goodwill required to advance regional co-operation.
Leading Fiji-based magazine Islands Business has taken a strong editorial line in its latest edition, saying that only a change in the Australian leadership offers hope.
Australia is not necessarily to blame.
Solomons leader Manasseh Sogavare has drawn criticism, not least for his decision to boycott next week's Pacific Islands Forum.
He has decided instead to go and visit his generous benefactors in Taiwan, a decision bound to pay even more handsome dividends.
The decision may be more than just a calculated insult to the China-huggers in the forum.
The greater insult of his absence is that leaders are set to discuss a review of RAMSI it commissioned last year, at the request of Sogavare, by former Fiji Foreign Minister Kaliopate Tavola and former head New Zealand diplomat Neil Walter.
Solomon Islands Foreign Minister Patteson Oti described RAMSI in a speech to the United Nations a fortnight ago as a "continuing occupation," a comment that has apparently upset PNG, and other forum countries which are part of the "occupation".
There are limits to what New Zealand can do when relationships go bad.
Under the unwritten rules that Australia and New Zealand apply to their roles in the Pacific, New Zealand has not developed strong relations with the Solomon Islands or Papua New Guinea.
They are seen as Australia's patch and to get too close to them would be seen as stepping on Australia's toes.
Whether or not Howard is returned to power, it is time for Clark and Foreign Minister Winston Peters to rethink this approach and to forge stronger ties in Australia's "patch".
It is also a shame that Peters is heading to the Northern Hemisphere for talks with the Netherlands, Sweden and France - and a date with the Rugby World Cup final - instead of heading to the forum with Clark.
It is not usual for foreign ministers to attend the forum on the fringes, though some do, but this forum merited an exception.
As Pacific specialist John Henderson of Canterbury University said this week, just talking again would be the most significant achievement of the summit.
Maybe an outstanding result for Jones would be a fine place to start.
