KEY POINTS:
Who would want to be South African President Thabo Mbeki these days? Not only is he a lame-duck president - having lost the leadership of the ruling African National Congress - but he is now being scorned for his "inaction" on Zimbabwe.
Mbeki was given the unenviable task
by the Southern African Development Community of mediating the mess in Zimbabwe and now he is being pilloried for his quiet diplomacy. People view Mbeki's perceived silence as a reluctance to criticise a fellow liberation comrade, but the problem is more complex.
Let's face it, this job was never going to be easy. There are some big obstacles in Mbeki's way, not least that he is dealing with the despotic Robert Mugabe, who culturally is contemptuous of a younger man telling him what to do. Added to this is that like many African leaders, Mbeki does not want to be seen to be taking instructions from the white West.
Mbeki's other problem is that he does not naturally command respect like Nelson Mandela. Mbeki is a technocrat, a backroom negotiator, who rose through the ANC leadership ranks to be his country's second democratically elected president.
He often appears cold and overly formal, but ask anyone who has been across a negotiating table from him and they will tell you that he is a skilled operator who can bring resolution to the most difficult situation. He proved this as one of the first ANC leaders to begin talks with the hated apartheid regime.
People should not confuse Mbeki's "quiet diplomacy" for inaction and they should not be surprised if Mugabe and his cronies "suddenly" agree to some sort of negotiated handover to Tsvangirai.
Mugabe is a bitter old man who wants to leave with his dignity intact and Mbeki might just be the one to allow this to happen.
Mbeki knows that to reach the settlement you want, you need to be open to compromise. The popular feeling is that the world should not negotiate with a monster like Mugabe. Well, what is the alternative? The United Nations is unlikely to send armed forces in to overthrow Mugabe.
The situation has gone beyond punishing Mugabe for his wrong doing.
It is now all about saving Zimbabwe. Hindsight may well prove that Mbeki's way was the best way to achieve this.
* Andrew Austin is the New Zealand Herald's chief reporter and was a journalist in South Africa for 14 years
