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Home / World

<i>Andrew Austin</i>: Mbeki pays for his ruthless reign

By Andrew Austin
Editor·NZ Herald·
24 Sep, 2008 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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Opinion by Andrew Austin
Andrew Austin is the editor of Hawke's Bay Today
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KEY POINTS:

The ANC has decided to recall the President of the republic.

With those words, ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe signalled the biggest upheaval in South African politics since the end of apartheid.

Thabo Mbeki, renowned for his ruthless sidelining of opponents, was finally brought down by the "coalition
of the wounded" - a grouping of former allies who have been waiting for their chance to get him.

Now, once again, South Africa's future is uncertain. Is this the democratic purging of a disconnected and conspiratorial President or the final blow which sends South Africa plunging into a Zimbabwe-style mess?

On the surface, the signs aren't good, with 11 Cabinet ministers, including Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and long-serving Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, resigning.

Manuel's exit is significant because he, with Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni, has been credited with making the economy a success.

Jittery currency traders, who used to sell rand at the mere sight of the then President Nelson Mandela going into hospital (even if it turned out to be for a toe op), have already caused the rand to drop at the news of Manuel's departure. The sharemarket also fell.

But there is a silver lining. Five of those Cabinet ministers, including Manuel and his highly effective deputy Jabu Moleketi, have indicated their willingness to serve under the new President.

The issue causing the most unease at present is ANC president Jacob Zuma's ability to lead South Africa's Government. People will have to wait to find out. Zuma will not take over immediately, but will appoint Motlanthe as interim President so that he can prepare for the general elections next year.

Cloaked in controversy recently, Zuma is an interesting character. A simple man who left school at a very young age, he was brought in as Mbeki's deputy because he was deemed not to be a threat and to be sightly clueless.

But the more Mbeki surrounded himself with yes men who fed him conspiracy theories about HIV/Aids, the more isolated he became.

ANC supporters, used to the gregarious Mandela as a leader, found Mbeki cold and with a superior air.

Zuma, a populist and more in the Mandela-mould, found an easy vacuum to fill. Every weekend he was out addressing rallies, slowly building his support base.

Belatedly, Mbeki tried to get rid of Zuma, firing him as Deputy President while he faced allegations of rape and corruption. When the charges were dropped, Mbeki's days were numbered.

So, where to now? Surprisingly, there is a school of thought across the racial divide in South Africa that anyone would be better than Mbeki.

While he has done some good things, such as finding a solution to the Zimbabwe crisis and securing the Football World Cup for the country, he has also squandered the racial goodwill Mandela left him and made the country a laughing stock with his refusal to accept that HIV causes Aids.

One would think there is too much at stake for Zuma to lead South Africa down the path of economic ruin.

He is not well educated but he does have some highly successful, intelligent politicians and businessmen around him who will not want to see the economy go downhill.

Having made his move, Zuma appears to be treading cautiously. He has done well not to rush in to grab personal power and has stressed the importance of a stable transition.

By all accounts a European trip he made this year, meeting bankers and politicians, was a huge success. Most were pleasantly surprised by his measured tone and intelligence.

Hopefully he will continue to follow this path. South Africa is not Zimbabwe and Zuma is probably not Mugabe. Whether they can avoid those stereotypes is the million-rand question.

* Andrew Austin is the New Zealand Herald's chief reporter and was a journalist in South Africa for 14 years

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Is Jacob Zuma the best man to take over the South African presidency?

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