Hurricane Dorian: Florida on guard for potential major hurricane strike

This GOES-16 satellite image taken yesterday at 14:20 UTC and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Dorian moving towards the US. Photo / AP

Hurricane Dorian is a 137kmh Category 1 hurricane, but isn't content to stay that way for long. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Dorian to become a Category 3 or greater "major" hurricane by Friday afternoon as it heads towards a potential landfall in Florida or elsewhere along the East Coast by Monday.

After sideswiping Puerto Rico and lashing St. Thomas during its trek through the Virgin Islands, Dorian has continued its march northwestward (at 21kmh) and is currently centered about 595km east of the southeastern Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Dorian will soon move into a region that is extremely conducive to intensification, with very warm waters and favorable upper-level winds. This area is an atmospheric tinder box that could support rapid intensification.

A woman poses for a photo backdropped by ocean waters and a Puerto Rican national flag, after the passing of Tropical Storm Dorian which is now heading towards Florida. Photo / AP

"All of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur," cautioned the National Hurricane Center in their Thursday morning bulletin. Experimental weather models indicate Dorian's odds of rapid intensification are more than double that of a typical storm. The most likely time frame for this to occur would be overnight Thursday into Friday afternoon, so don't be surprised if by suppertime Friday you find a powerful hurricane lurking in the Atlantic.

As Dorian approaches the Florida coast over the weekend, the official Hurricane Center forecast predicts peak winds to reach 209kmh, on the cusp of Category 4 intensity. "The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur," the Hurricane Center wrote.

In addition to the wind, heavy rains from the storm are expected develop over portions of the Bahamas and Florida late this weekend into early next week.

Wind speed probabilities for Hurricane Dorian as it makes its way towards the US coast. Image / National Hurricane Center

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon "to ensure local governments and emergency management agencies have ample time, resources and flexibility to get prepared," he posted to Twitter.

This storm is likely to intensify, as there's not much holding Dorian back from quickly becoming a top-tier hurricane. Any regions it impacts would likely be subject to destructive winds well over 160kmh, storm surge flooding, and the threat of inland flooding from heavy rainfall.

We also know that Dorian will take a few days before it makes a potential turn toward land, giving forecasters time to refine the outlook and people time to prepare. As Dorian is a small hurricane, subtle shifts in path - only on the order of fifty miles or less - could mean the difference between severe winds and a modest breeze. Brian McNoldy, Capital Weather Gang's tropical weather expert, tweeted that the National Hurricane Center's average track error this far out is three times that - 240km. The stakes with this are high.

We're also confident that if the scenarios shown by some models, with a major hurricane hitting Florida moving from the east-to-west, do come to fruition, the storm surge, which is the the storm-driven rise in ocean water above normally dry land, would be exacerbated by astronomical high tides, known as "King Tides," that are causing coastal flooding even on sunny days.

The predicted path of Hurricane Dorian. Image / Google

But will it reach land? That's the looming question, and uncertainty remains unusually high. While it's very likely that the mainland United States will see a hurricane landfall associated with Dorian, it's not a certainty. There's still considerable spread in model guidance regarding Dorian's eventual track.

It boils down to the strength of the Bermuda High located to the north and east of Dorian. That blocking weather system serves as a guardrail, steering Dorian around its western flank. A weaker Bermuda high might allow Dorian to turn north before making landfall in Florida, bringing impacts to Georgia and the Carolinas but potentially just fringing the coast. There are a number of weather models that indicate this potential.

But a stronger high ― as remains more likely right now - would present a much more serious threat to Florida and/or the Carolinas.

The official National Hurricane Forecast predicts Dorian to be at or above Category 3 strength while approaching the east coast of Florida Monday night into Tuesday. That is a slightly slower timing than forecast Wednesday, allowing residents more time to prepare, but also giving more time for a weather system over New England, plus the high pressure area, to potentially lure the storm further north or out to sea.

Store shelves are empty of bottled water as residents buy supplies in preparation for Hurricane Dorian, in Doral, Florida. Photo / AP

Another possible scenario is for Dorian to slow or stall as it approaches Florida hugging the coast or meandering just offshore over multiple high tide cycles. "One of the most concerning parts of the #Dorian track is how slow it gets near Florida," tweeted Rick Knabb, hurricane expert at the The Weather Channel. "Storm surge and wind will likely be life-threatening, but let's also prepare for an inland flood disaster somewhere in southeastern U.S. That hazard has taken the most lives in recent years."

There is still considerable uncertainty with this storm track forecast.

We're still not at the time frame where we can say where exactly Dorian will hit - if a US landfall does occur at all. We'll have a clearer picture Friday into Saturday as we trend closer to the actual event. Several models indicate Dorian may actually track across the Florida peninsula and reemerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then strengthening again. This would be a disturbing scenario, and a model trend that warrants watching.

If Dorian makes landfall in Florida, it will be the fourth hurricane do since 2016 following Hermine (2016), Irma (2017) and Michael (2018).

"Assuming #HurricaneDorian makes landfall in Florida, this will be the 4th consecutive year with a Florida #hurricane landfall - the most consecutive years with a Florida landfall since they were hit by hurricanes in a whopping 7 consecutive years from 1944-1950," tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane research affiliated with Colorado State University.

Klotzbach added that if Dorian makes landfall in Florida with 200kmh sustained winds, as projected, it would be the strongest to hit Florida's east coast since Andrew in 1992 (which had winds of 265 kmh).