Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron whose Conservative Party is expected to win the most seats. Photo / AP
Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron whose Conservative Party is expected to win the most seats. Photo / AP
Close race between Labour and Tories forces parties to consider deals or face period of rudderless government.
Britain faces "weeks not days" without an effective government after this week's general election, according to senior Tories and Liberal Democrats, who are privately planning to force their leaders into gruelling and protracted talks if Prime Minister David Cameron's party wins the most seats.
Despite claims that another Tory-led Administrationoffers security over chaos, senior party sources have suggested the governing of the country will in effect be on pause for a lengthy period if the Conservatives are the largest party in Parliament but fall short of a majority.
The latest Opinium/Observer poll has the two main parties neck and neck, with the Tories on 35 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are on 8 per cent, but are expected to secure more seats than their national polling would suggest. Yesterday's YouGov/Sunday Times poll also had the Conservatives ahead by one on 34 per cent, Labour 33 per cent, Lib Dems 8 per cent and Ukip 13 per cent.
Senior Tories and Lib Dems believe the most likely outcome is a hung parliament, with the Conservatives the largest party.
However, Tory backbenchers are determined to force Cameron to offer them a secret ballot on any potential deal with the Lib Dems, in what some believe is an attempt to wreck the chances of another coalition. They hope to strongarm Cameron into either giving in to right-wing demands over a prolonged period, or calling another election to try to win a majority. Many Tory MPs believe their party has been held back by having to work with the Lib Dems and are reluctant to sign up quickly to another five-year deal.
Cameron has refused to endorse such a vote, whose secrecy would diminish his influence over the result. However, the powerful 1922 committee has already made Cameron accept that its chairman, Graham Brady, will be involved in coalition negotiations. Members are confident of forcing further concessions from a weakened leadership, according to one senior Tory source, who said backbench support for a secret ballot was "strong".
There were growing signs last night that Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg could face a revolt from within his own party if he tries to push through a second deal with the Tories that includes an agreement to hold an in/out referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.
Ed Miliband.
The Observer has learned that the Business Secretary, Vince Cable, is among senior figures in the party who are upset at an apparent decision by Clegg to abandon his previous opposition to a referendum, except in circumstances where there is a further transfer of powers to Brussels. Cable - who is concerned that an in/out referendum will cause huge uncertainty for business and risk opening the way to an exit from the EU - is understood not to have been consulted in any detail by Clegg on his decision to change his approach to this issue. And Cable does not believe that a referendum will settle the issue of the UK's EU membership.
One of the country's foremost constitutionalists, Professor Vernon Bogdanor, said the current "political dynamics" were unprecedented and a period of instability was sure to follow after voting begins on Thursday night NZT.
He added: "The negotiations may well take longer than in 2010. But the constitutional framework is clear: the Queen's speech is due to be delivered on May 27. There must be a government in place by then. But the political dynamics are unprecedented if, as the polls suggest, the two major parties are deadlocked."
UK election: The stats
Opinium/Observer poll
35% Conservatives (+1 on last weekend)
34% Labour (+1)
13% Ukip (unchanged)
8% Liberal Democrats (-1)
5% Greens (-1)
4% Scottish National Party (unchanged)
Seat projection 276 Conservatives 267 Labour 55 SNP 27 Lib Dems 9 Democratic Unionist Party 3 Ukip 1 Greens
Left/right blocs 329 seats anti-Conservative parties 315 seats support Cameron-led government
Undecided 69% of voters who chose a party said they would definitely vote for it 31% said there was a small or good chance they would switch
Leaders' ratings + 3% David Cameron, Conservative -14% Ed Miliband, Labour -28% Nick Clegg, Lib Dem -14% Nigel Farage, Ukip - (the number of those who disapprove of the performance is subtracted from those who approve)
