Howard's ears ringing defeat

By GREG ANSLEY Australia correspondent

CANBERRA - With the explosion of a car bomb near Australia's embassy in Baghdad still ringing in his ears and Deputy Leader Peter Costello looming large over his shoulder, Prime Minister John Howard continues to lose support as he heads for this year's election.

The problems faced by Howard now appear likely to push the election later into the year, possibly in October, rather than a date as early as August as some commentators had been tipping.

But new polls have confirmed that Iraq is becoming a liability for the Government and that most voters believe Howard will retire during his next term if he wins the election, handing the reins to Costello.

A Sydney Morning Herald poll yesterday found that most voters believed there would be a transfer of power to Costello, and that the thought of this was enough to turn them away from the Government in droves.

The poll reported that 41 per cent - including more than one in five Government supporters - were less likely to vote for the Coalition if they thought Costello would subsequently become prime minister.

Costello, regarded as Howard's natural successor, was bitterly disappointed last year when Howard refused to give any commitment on retirement, a position he has since steadfastly maintained.

The tide of support also continues to turn against Australian involvement in Iraq following the revelations of torture in the Abu Ghraib jail, the increasing scale of the guerrilla war against the occupying forces, and repeated warnings that the war and support for the US has increased the probability of a terrorist strike against Australia.

Yesterday Foreign Minister Alexander Downer played down speculation that the bomb that exploded about 100m from the Australian mission on Tuesday was targeted at its diplomats or the soldiers protecting them.

He said a claim by an Iraqi official that the mission was the target was not supported by evidence, although he did not deny the possibility.

Howard used the bombing to bolster his argument that the relatively small Australian Army unit in Iraq should remain, rebutting Labor calls for the force to be withdrawn.

Labor said yesterday that it would take advice from foreign affairs security officials before bringing the troops home if the party won power.

Howard said any proposal to leave Australian diplomats unprotected was ludicrous and insane and withdrawal after the transfer of government to Iraq next month would damage Australia's national interests.

But the Herald poll showed that 63 per cent of respondents opposed the war, compared with 52 per cent last September, with support plunging from 43 per cent to 31 per cent.

Although far too early to write Howard off, the Government's popularity also continues to slide - despite a budget that handed about A$52 billion ($59.4 billion) to taxpayers through tax cuts, family programmes and other big-spending plans.

Last week a Newspoll in the Australian, made after the budget, reported that Labor had increased its election-winning lead to 54 per cent against the Government's 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Yesterday's Herald poll confirmed the trend, giving Labor a two-party preferred lead of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.