Howard could still win this weekend's general election

1.00pm - By KATHY MARKS

It should have been a relaxing stroll in the sunshine for John Howard, a chance to press the flesh of friendly voters in Bennelong, his Sydney seat.

Instead the Australian Prime Minister found himself pursued through a suburban shopping mall by protesters chanting "Shame, Howard, Shame!"

Their leader was no radical young firebrand, but a 73-year-old former president of Mr Howard's own conservative Liberal Party. John Valder, a man of impeccable conservative credentials, used to be one of the Prime Minister's close friends. Now he is so disgusted by his policies that he is campaigning to unseat him at this weekend's general election.

The former Stock Exchange chairman of patrician demeanour, embodies a yearning by Australians of different political persuasions to oust a leader regarded as morally bankrupt.

Mr Valder is appalled by the government's stance on asylum-seekers, its indifference to the plight of two of its nationals held at Guantanamo Bay and its slavish support for the war in Iraq.

Mr Howard, 65, has transformed the country's laid-back egalitarian image since coming to power in 1996. Re-elected in 2001 on a wave of anti-refugee sentiment, his own integrity has been increasingly questioned, not least over Iraq, where like President Bush and Tony Blair, he stands accused of misleading voters on the reasons for going to war.

The election will be closely watched abroad for two reasons. Firstly: the possibility of a change of government in one of the US's staunchest allies. Secondly: with Mr Bush and Mr Blair due to face their own electorates before long, it will be a litmus test of voter retaliation against governments that sent troops to Iraq.

The challenger is the 43-year-old Mark Latham, the new leader of the opposition Labor Party and seen as its best chance for its best chance for years of toppling Mr Howard.

But while the prospect of a fourth successive Howard government is a nightmare for the liberal, well-educated middle classes, the polls suggest that what seemed unthinkable a few months ago might actually come to pass.

Mr Latham surged ahead in the polls after taking over as opposition leader earlier this year.

But according to an opinion poll released on Tuesday, Australia's government leads the Labor opposition ahead of Saturday's election.

The government received a boost from its A$6 billion ($6.48 billion) in spending promises during its campaign launch.

The Newspoll showed the conservative Liberal/National coalition government with a one point lead over centre-left Labor on a two-party preferred basis, where minor party votes are given to major parties and ultimately decide an election.

The survey, published in the Australian newspaper, also found Prime Minister John Howard's government opened up a seven point lead on a primary vote basis, or first count of votes, with 46 per cent support compared to Labor's 39 per cent.

The economy is good and, while there is a vague desire for change, Mr Howard is seen as a safe pair of hands while Mr Latham who has never even held a ministerial post is inexperienced and untested.

Despite Mr Valder's best efforts, the principle of "truth in government" does not resonate among a politically apathetic electorate.

Opposition to the Iraq war was never as strong or vociferous in Australia as in Britain, and the issue has been peripheral in the campaign. Still shocked by the Bali bombings, which killed 88 Australians, many voters accept Mr Howard's unwavering support for US foreign policy.

Even the recent assertion by a former senior Defence Department aide, Mike Scrafton, that Mr Howard lied to Australians before the last election about the "children overboard" affair has not dented his popularity.

In the final gasp of the 2001 campaign, the government claimed that a boatload of Iraqi asylum-seekers had thrown their children into the Indian Ocean to avoid being turned back by the Australian navy. It subsequently emerged that photographs of children in the water were taken while they were being rescued, after their boat sank.

Mr Scrafton said he telephoned the prime minister several times to tell him there was no evidence that children were thrown into the sea. Despite this, he continued to repeat the story in interviews the following day.

The government, which had whipped up an anti-refugee hysteria in the previous months, was re-elected.

John Warhurst, professor of politics at the Australian National University, believes that Mr Howard could confound his critics once again.

"People may think it's time for a change, but they're not sure about Latham," he said.

The challenger, an abrasive and populist politician who espouses the interests of the aspirational lower middle classes, has the advantage of novelty and represents a generational change. But many voters are perturbed by his short emotional fuse and his tendency to shoot from the hip on policy matters.

Robert Manne, a professor of politics at Monash University, says that a Latham government would not be significantly different, even on foreign policy.

"It would still be pro-American, but there would be more emphasis on regional security in south-east Asia," he said.

Mr Valder and supporters of his "Not Happy, John" campaign live in hope.

"I've got every finger and toe crossed," said Joan Adams, an elderly voter who attended a recent rally in Bennelong. I'm disgusted with John Howard. He has made me ashamed to be Australian."

- INDEPENDENT and REUTERS