Hamas - new dawn or nightmare?

GAZA - With 24 hours to go before polling in the first Palestinian Parliament elections in a decade, Hamas is on a roll.

The armed faction long committed to Israel's destruction is almost certain to send political shock waves by securing a major influence in the institutions it has opposed for a decade.

The prospect of Hamas gaining political power has triggered an urgent appraisal in the West and Israel over the handling of an organisation they have long proscribed as "terrorist".

Will Hamas' probable poll success lead to a menacing new threat in an already unstable region, or will it be the first stage of a conversion of a faction responsible for the largest proportion of Israeli deaths in suicide bombings in the past five years?

Hamas' electoral momentum has been evident way beyond its natural stronghold of Gaza. Its members and supporters swept to victory in the West Bank city of Nablus on an anti-corruption ticket in town council elections on December 15.

Everybody who was anybody in the town turned out to congratulate the new mayor, Adli Yaish, a local car-parts dealer. He is prominent in several of the Islamic charities which go a long way to making up for the lack of an effective Palestinian welfare state and on which Hamas has built much of its popular reputation for fair dealing.

True, outside the trade union theatre where his victory reception was held, they were selling DVDs portraying the Hamas "martyrs" to the conflict with Israel to the accompaniment of martial music.

But inside, as community leaders queued up to embrace Yaish, the green campaign buttons and banners had not a vestige of this. Yasser Mansour, the number seven candidate on the faction's national list, expertly worked the room to exploit the victory.

"In the name of God, the results are not strange," Mansour told visitors. "We can attribute them to corruption [in the Palestinian Authority] and the security chaos the Palestinian people have been suffering for 10 years."

To the untutored, it may seem odd to hear Hamas condemning "security chaos". But nowhere is the deeply unpopular internal violence to which Mansour was referring more evident than here in Gaza. The Fatah-led PA has failed to prevent kidnappings, tribal feuds and gunbattles - mainly within Fatah itself.

Hamas has also fought this campaign with a professionalism and discipline that has eluded most other parties. You could see it in the horn-honking, banner-waving, motorcade that drove through Gaza City yesterday, and in the women's rally which Hamas organised in Nablus last week.

The most prominent local female candidate, Muna Mansour, suggested a long-term truce would not end Hamas' goal of "liberating Palestine from the river to the sea".

This goes to the heart of Israel's and the West's dilemma. Awakening to the new reality, some senior Israelis have suggested Israel could talk to Hamas if it abandoned its militancy and ended its commitment to destroy Israel.

The first condition may be easier to fulfil than the second. Hamas has made it clear that it has no intention of recognising the state of Israel, as the PLO eventually did under Yasser Arafat. The message of Mohammed Abu Teir, Hamas' number two candidate, to Israel was: "You negotiated with the PLO for 30 years - what have you given to the PLO?"

Notably, Hamas did not include its commitment to Israel's destruction in its election manifesto. Sheikh Abu Teir said: "We know how to conduct politics - we are passing through a new stage of politics. There is no need to raise an inappropriate slogan."

Interpreting that enigmatic statement will be only one of many vexed questions if Hamas wins at the polls.

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THE NEXT STEP TO STATEHOOD

The vote

* Voting will take place at 1000 poll stations in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Arab East Jerusalem.

* 1.4 million Palestinians are eligible to vote for the 132-member Palestinian Legislative Council.

* Half will be chosen from 314 candidates on 11 party lists.

* The rest of the seats will be chosen from 412 regional candidates in 16 districts.

* Hamas gets about 30 per cent in opinion polls; Fatah 32 per cent.

* There will be 800 foreign observers.

* Polls open tomorrow night (NZT). Exit polls expected on Thursday.

The groups

* Fatah: The faction of President Mahmoud Abbas. Dogged by accusations of corruption and split between an old guard and younger leaders seeking power. Fatah is formally committed to a peace deal with Israel for a state. A 45-member Fatah list is headed by Marwan Barghouthi, jailed by Israel for planning militant attacks.

* Hamas: Officially committed to destroying the Jewish state, it opposed interim peace accords and boycotted the last Parliament vote in 1996. Branded a terrorist group in the West. Has won support for its charity network and anti-corruption credentials.

* Independent Palestine List: Headed by former presidential candidate Mustafa Barghouthi, it advocates social reform and non-violent resistance to occupation. Has a 41-member list comprising professionals and intellectuals.

* Third Way: 25-member list led by former finance minister Salam Fayyad. Seeks to achieve statehood through civic action.

* Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa: Drawn from the Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Named after Abu Ali Mustafa, a leader killed by Israel.

* Badil: Arabic for "alternative", a coalition of former members of secular and Marxist PLO factions, as well as independent figures. It has a 40-member candidate list.

POLLS APART

Will the vote be peaceful?

Armed factions from Hamas and Fatah said they will put weapons aside for voting day, but fears of trouble have been stirred by growing disorder in the Gaza Strip since an Israeli pullout last year.

How fair will it be?

By Middle East standards, Palestinians have a relatively open democracy without restrictions on which parties can contest. The biggest dangers are intimidation, problems with the count or disruption when results come in. About 800 foreign observers will monitor the vote.

Why is Hamas doing well?

Hamas is seen by many Palestinians as having stronger anti-corruption credentials than Fatah and its charity network is popular. Fatah has been weakened by division between an old guard and younger leaders who seek a bigger share of power.

What will it mean for peacemaking?

Since Hamas is officially committed to destroying Israel and opposes talks, it makes peacemaking unlikely in the short term if the Islamic group makes a very strong showing and joins the Government. Some hope that bringing Hamas into Parliament might make it easier to persuade the group to begin disarmament.

Israel

* Election to be held on March 28.

* Ehud Olmert of Kadima is committed to Ariel Sharon's plans, which may include withdrawals from the West Bank but holding on to a united Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

* Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday that Israel might have to relinquish control of some territory if it wanted to reach a peace deal.

* Labour leader Amir Peretz plans on "keeping Jerusalem united and strong, with a Jewish majority and character" if he became Prime Minister.

- REUTERS