Smoke rises after an explosion in the industrial zone in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Photo / Bloomberg
Gulf Arab states have been taking the brunt of Iranian attacks in a war they didn’t start and never chose.
American allies in the region have spent a year trying to mediate a peace between the US, Israel and Iran, conscious that they had the most to lose from the onset of fighting. And as missiles and drones fell on Dubai, Riyadh and Doha this week – cities that governments have worked for years to turn into stable havens and financial hubs – many questioned US objectives and strategy.
“No one in the region chose to go to war with Iran – we have seen the limitations of military solutions in the past,” said Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre, referring to the wars in Gaza, Yemen and Iraq.
“We’re directly joined at the hip by geography,” he added. “Once the war is over and US ships go home, we will have to deal with Iran.”
Since the war broke out on February 28, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have continued to push for diplomacy – and an off-ramp for both US President Donald Trump and the Iranians, according to people familiar with the matter. But short of telling the US to remove forces from their territories or close Middle East bases, none expect Iran to stop bombing them, one of the people said, requesting anonymity discussing such matters.
Even if they can convince the US or Iran to de-escalate, Gulf states are aware that Israel may continue its campaign to destroy the regime.
The bulk of Iran’s targets have been US bases and embassies, but projectiles have hit hotels including Dubai’s iconic Burj al-Arab and oil installations. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery halted operations. QatarEnergy declared force majeure after suspending liquefied natural gas production and associated products.
Gulf countries’ air defences have been tested by Iran’s waves of drones and missiles, which have burned through a large number of valuable interceptors – well over 1000 based on the volume of attacks. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said it’d send defensive aid to Gulf countries, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this week that Middle East allies had sought help to strengthen their defences as the war wears on.
Iran has said it’s only targeting US and Israeli assets, but Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Abdulrahman Al-Thani told Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that Iran is seeking to harm its neighbours and draw them into a war “that is not theirs”.
Iranian actions reflected “an escalatory approach” without any genuine desire for resolution, Sheikh Mohammed said.
UAE Minister of State for International Co-operation Reem Al-Hashimy stressed her country’s “full and legitimate right to self-defence” in response to Iran’s attacks while at the same time calling for a diplomatic solution.
Arab leaders began to question the value of US security guarantees in September, when Israel launched an unprecedented strike against senior Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital of Doha – without any substantial rebuke from Washington.
“This is the problem with the US security umbrella, it never put Gulf countries’ interests first and that has only become more of a daily reality,” said Karen Young, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.
Israel has been bombarded by Iran in recent days, but the military eased restrictions on workplaces and gatherings and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been triumphant. Many critics – seizing on comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others – accuse the country of dragging the US, and the region, to war.
“This isn’t the Gulf’s war and we shouldn’t fall for the Israeli bait the way the US did,” said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University and an associate fellow at Chatham House. “Lack of US reliability is not the surprise here.”
Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal put it bluntly to CNN: “This is Netanyahu’s war.”
Wealthy Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE spent the early part of Trump’s second term pledging hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in the US. They were ready to spend much more – before their own economies and critical infrastructure became collateral damage.
The current feeling among Gulf states is that, for the US, protecting Israeli goals takes precedence over the stability of Arab allies, according to some Gulf-based officials.
Six countries who pledged to invest more than a trillion dollars in the US just last year told Washington not to attack Iran, one of the officials said, while another one – namely Israel – partly financed by the US, was in favour of strikes.
“It’s not the first time Gulf states feel they’ve come second to Israel,” said David Roberts, a Reader at King’s College London who worked in Qatar and specialises in Middle East security.
Iran has adopted a new strategy since its 12-day war with Israel in June. With direct American involvement this time around, it’s looked to hurt the US in different ways, inflict as much pain as possible – and drag it out as long as it can.
While some Gulf states may have privately indicated previously that US strikes on Iran and regime change wouldn’t be so bad, none expected the country to focus its response so much on Arab neighbours. Iran is attacking – and will continue to target – the “vulnerability and the underbelly” of the Gulf countries, Young said.
That’s included striking right at the heart of their reputations as beacons of stability in a volatile region – which has left thousands of foreign tourists and expatriate financiers stranded amid widespread flight cancellations – and hitting oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil and gas prices soaring.
For Gulf states, it’s impossible to determine how long this conflict will drag on, or how Iran will target them. There’s fear that attacks could escalate, particularly against energy infrastructure, and possibly civilian targets if the war isn’t contained.
“The fundamental Gulf strategy has failed,” Roberts said. “Entrusting, investing in the US relationship has been difficult and expensive – but was all designed to prevent this exact conflagration.”
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