Greatest revival since Lazarus on cards for Strauss-Kahn

Last Thursday, Dominique Strauss-Kahn was not just politically dead, but buried.

Disgraced by charges that he sexually assaulted a hotel maid in New York, the 62-year-old former Finance Minister had lost his job as head of the International Monetary Fund and waved goodbye to his ambitions of becoming France's next president.

But with a twist that normally exists only in the minds of Hollywood scriptwriters, everything turned on its head.

The following day, it was the turn of Strauss-Kahn's accuser to be tarred a liar, prompting the court to end his house arrest and leaving the case on the verge of collapse.

The shift in one of the most extraordinary affairs in modern France has left opinion swirling backwards and forwards. Can Strauss-Kahn make the greatest revival since Lazarus?

To the delight of President Nicolas Sarkozy's conservatives, that prospect is making the Socialist Party tie itself up in knots for the second time in six weeks.

Strauss-Kahn's arrest triggered accusations from grassroots Socialists that party grandees had known of a manic sex drive but ignored it or covered it up.

Now a storm of a different kind is brewing.

Should the rules be bent, given that "DSK" is the party's best hope against Sarkozy in next May's presidential elections?

"Nothing prevents him from making a comeback," said Francois Pupponi, MP for Sarcelles, which is DSK's stronghold.

"He will now be present in the presidential campaign," said his friend MP Jean-Marie Le Guen, who spoke of a "rehabilitation."

The problem is that last week the Socialists - having assumed DSK's career to be over - launched proceedings for a presidential primary in October. Candidates have until July 13 to declare their hand.

But Strauss-Kahn's next court appearance is on July 18, and no one knows if the case against him will be dropped or the charges downgraded or what.

Strauss-Kahn had not openly said he would tilt at the presidency, although his friends had been signalling he would.

Since the scandal erupted, he has remained silent about his intentions, and his French lawyer said on Saturday that he would speak only "when he returns to France", a position that has made the uncertainty even more acute.

So far only Martine Aubry, a friend of Strauss-Kahn, has thrown her hat in the ring to be the party's champion. She did it before Friday's turnaround.

Two other likely candidates, Francois Hollande and his former partner Segolene Royal, are talking about asking the July 13 deadline to be postponed. But a fourth candidate, Arnaud Montebourg, says the party has to obey its own rules. Acting party secretary Harlem Desir is also opposed.

Others question whether DSK has the strength or will to campaign after his ordeal, which included several days in New York's notorious Rikers Island prison.

Strauss-Kahn "is still trapped inside a kind of washing machine that is spinning around and you already want to know whether he can throw himself into the simmering tub of a primary and a presidential election," Paris politician Claude Bartolone snapped at reporters on Friday.

In any case, say other voices, DSK will have a chance only if the charges are completely dropped. Only this will enable him to come home without a legal stain and cast himself predictably as a victim of American prudery, a skewed legal system and a media lynching.

"The problem for Dominique Strauss-Kahn is that it's not just about winning a procedural battle," philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy, a DSK devotee, said in an interview with Le Parisien. "It's about being recognised as innocent, completely innocent - and re-established in one's honour."

But this is the view of a darling of the Left Bank bourgeois-bohemians, not that of the country.

France is famously indifferent to the affairs and illegitimate children of its politicians, including those of the two previous Presidents, Jacques Chirac and Francois Mitterrand.

Yet, even in the most favourable light, the reported episode in New York has a tawdry, transactional and risky feel that could colour opinion against Strauss-Kahn.

"My view is that DSK will not be viewed as presidential material," said Marcel Bouton, a Paris businessman. "This episode showed that he likes to play with fire, and he's done it more than once."

Frederic Dabi, a political analyst with pollsters Ifop, said DSK's best role could be as kingmaker, enabling him to dish out judicious dollops of popularity. "If he gave his support to Martine Aubry, with whom he had an electoral pact, it would be a fantastic boost for her," said Dabi.

According to an opinion poll published yesterday by Harris Interactive, 49 per cent of voters want Strauss-Kahn to return to French politics, and 45 per cent are against.

Strauss-Kahn did not help his public image in the United States by celebrating his first night of freedom with a fancy US$600 meal of pasta and truffles at a Manhattan restaurant.

"When the debate is between those who accuse you of rape and those who defend you as a mere disgusting cad, your image problems have not emerged from critical care," wrote New York Times blogger Michael Powell.

- additional reporting the Observer