German Chancellor scents election victory

MUENSTER, Germany - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said he felt a rising tide of support at rallies in the past two weeks and predicted another late surge would lift him to victory for a third term in Sunday's vote.

Schroeder, whose Social Democrats trail the Christian Democrats by about seven points in opinion polls, said he had a 100-day programme ready, after his government was caught unprepared in 2002 with a surprise win.

"Naturally we have a programme -- and it's already waiting in the drawer," Schroeder told a small group of journalists after a campaign speech in Muenster, one of his 104 rallies in the final weeks of the campaign for the Sept. 18 election.

"Our confidence is growing at every rally," he said after delivering an hour-long speech to 7000 cheering supporters in the western university town of 240,000 people in the pivotal working class state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

"Did you see how crazy it was out there tonight?" he added. "We've been getting fantastic crowds the last three weeks. This is a university town but there wasn't a single protester out there. Not one! They almost always lurk in university towns."

Schroeder admitted that in the summer, when the gap to the CDU was twice as wide, there were defeatists in his own party.

"But in the last three weeks we've got a situation where this party again believes in the victory," he said. "I have to admit that wasn't always the case at the start of the campaign."

He said the upturn began after the constitutional court formally cleared the way for the election late last month and the recovery gained momentum after his strong performance in a televised debate with challenger Angela Merkel a week ago.

"The decisive point came when the court made its decision," he said, between eating a pizza and drinking a glass of white wine. "Then the debate played a role and now we're seeing turnouts at rallies like this like I've seldom experienced."

A survey for the Forsa polling group on Monday showed the SPD rising one point to 35 per cent while the CDU were steady on 42 per cent. The SPD's Greens partners had 7 per cent while the CDU's likely partners, the Free Democrats, were on 6 per cent.

The CDU and the Free Democrats would thus fall short of a majority at a combined 48 per cent, meaning a grand coalition of the CDU and SPD would be the most likely result -- and the largest of the two taking the chancellery.

Schroeder, whose SPD had trailed the CDU by as many as 23 points, repeated his goal was to win 38 per cent of the vote and elaborated on why that would be enough to keep his job.

"The numbers are quite simple and the goal is 38 per cent," said Schroeder, who refused to make any comments about possible coalition partners.

"We were at 34 per cent and if we gain four to 38 per cent while the other side loses four (from 42), we're both at 38. The last time (2002) we won 38.5 per cent. I'm not a mathematician but that should..." he said without finishing his sentence.

In 2002, the SPD and CDU both won 38.5 per cent but the SPD had a 6,000-vote edge. The Greens won 8.6 per cent in 2002 while the FDP won 7.4 per cent.

- REUTERS