Georgia's ex-Soviet partners jittery, but safe

11.45am

ALMATY - Georgia's "velvet revolution" may have given autocratic rulers across the former Soviet Union some problems sleeping last night, but strong security forces and weak or crushed opposition groups make repetitions unlikely.

From Central Asian Turkmenistan to Belarus on the edge of Europe, the 11 Commonwealth of Independent States outside Russia that sprang up after the Soviet empire's collapse are mostly run by former Communist bosses aided by successor bodies to the KGB.

The few leadership changes that have taken place have seen power pass from one member of the old guard to another, or, as in Azerbaijan last month, from father to son.

The long-standing presidents may have gasped as President Eduard Shevardnadze -- a former Soviet foreign minister -- announced his resignation, but all could rest assured that they have a stronger grip on better paid security forces, and little or no independent media or political opposition.

Russian analysts say Ukraine, whose nationalists in the west have long vied with the Russian-speaking east of the country, comes closest to matching Georgia's poverty and separatists.

"But it's not to the extent that you'd expect an export of the velvet revolution," said Igor Bunin of the Centre for Political Technologies in Moscow.

In Turkmenistan and next-door Uzbekistan, opposition rallies are simply unthinkable and what opposition exists lives mostly in exile, while countries like Belarus have small opposition groups who say they are repressed by the authorities.

Both governments are repeatedly accused by rights groups and Western governments of flagrant human rights abuses.

And in Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov -- recently target of an assassination attempt -- is officially president-for-life and nurtures a bizarre personality cult.

"You wouldn't see this (revolution) happening in Uzbekistan," said Shukhrat Shaykhov, a 32-year-old office worker in Tashkent.

"It's not possible to compare our two presidents. Ours is more fixated about being in power, he sees himself as unchangeable... I thought Shevardnadze was the same but he turned out to be more far-sighted and ceded to the people."

The fact that Shevardnadze stopped short -- or was simply incapable -- of sending tanks against thousands of people in the streets of Tbilisi is seen as a weakness not shared by others.

In Ukraine, President Leonid Kuchma has withstood smaller protests calling for his dismissal for two years. Analysts say the former nuclear missile factory boss would fight to stay.

"Kuchma is not Shevardnadze, and he is ready to take much tougher action. Kuchma will not resign," said Oleksander Dergachev, a political analyst.

The death of five protesters in Kyrgyzstan in 2002 has left few doubts among residents that President Askar Akayev would be capable of sending in the troops.

"It would be a bloodbath here," said Yerkin, a 25-year-old entrepreneur in the capital Bishkek. "The security forces would protect Akayev as their own president."

For a country like Kazakhstan, whose elite is now enjoying an economic boom thanks to huge oil discoveries, officials are quick to draw the distinction that Georgia is much poorer.

"The tough economic situation, complicated by the domestic political situation, led to a confrontation," President Nursultan Nazarbayev said in a statement, praising the Georgian people for being "wise" in avoiding bloodshed.

- REUTERS