First the surge, and then the exit

WASHINGTON - With his presidency at a critical juncture, President Barack Obama today attempts to convince Americans that he has a credible strategy to wind down the US commitment in Afghanistan and gradually hand management of the war over to the Government in Kabul.

In a nationwide address from the West Point military academy, the President is expected to announce he is sending a further 30,000 or more US troops to the eight-year-old conflict.

Even more important, he must explain how this escalation of an increasingly unpopular war will help bring about a successful end.

White House officials said Obama would make clear that Afghanistan, where 68,000 US and 40,000 foreign troops are currently deployed, is not an open-ended venture, and that within a measurable timespan, most if not all of them would leave.

General Stanley McChrystal, the US commander in Afghanistan, said last week that a reduction of US troops could start by 2013, while Obama's spokesman has said all US combat forces would be gone within "eight or nine years".

The President himself is unlikely to be so precise, but analysts say he must lay out a clear and convincing exit strategy.

The Guardian reported that as part of the strategy the US may appoint an international "high representative" in Kabul in an attempt to bypass Hamid Karzai's Government.

It said the initiative was being pushed by Obama's special envoy Richard Holbrooke but had met resistance from European allies.

Obama made his final decisions, and issued the first orders to implement them, at a meeting in the Oval Office on Monday.

It was attended by Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, General David Petraeus, head of US Central Command, and the President's National Security Adviser, General Jim Jones.

Afterwards, Obama spoke by teleconference with McChrystal - whose August request for reinforcements of 40,000 personnel or more set in motion a painstaking policy review. He also spoke to Karl Eikenberry, the US Ambassador in Kabul.

Yesterday Obama was contacting leaders of key US allies to round up commitments for the minimum of 5000 more soldiers Washington is trying to squeeze out of its Nato partners.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said another 500 British troops would be deployed before Christmas to reinforce the 9000 already there. Afghanistan is only one facet of a critical December for Obama.

Yesterday the Senate started a make-or-break debate on healthcare reform. Obama is under growing fire over his economic management.

Unemployment if anything is worsening, despite unprecedented budget deficits, and efforts to rescue homeowners facing foreclosure are also foundering.

Although Republican leaders generally support the troop increase, many key Democrats do not.

Gates and Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, are sure of a grilling when they testify on Obama's new policy before Congressional committees tomorrow and Friday.

- INDEPENDENT