Fallibility: Palin's formula for success

"You can see Sarah Palin's Alaska from your living room," boasts The Learning Channel website. Sure. The sanitised version.

Last week five million American viewers tuned into TLC to watch Sarah Palin's Alaska - twice the number who watched the climax of hit show Mad Men's fourth series.

Palin doesn't get voted off an island but, if the pundits are correct, she is focused on a bigger prize: the White House. "Oh God. Help me. I'm scared," she says as she trudges up a glacier on Denali Peak with husband Todd. Somehow, like most reality TV, that is hard to believe, as is the TLC blog, "We are Not Taking Sides," which insists the show is not political, before talking about politics.

After all, Palin is the "pitbull with lipstick", the combative girl with her own constituency of red meat, patriotic, God, guts-and-guns Americans. It is an image the show tries to soften, as the Palins showcase Alaska, and themselves, in what feels like an epic political pitch.

Palin is hot. The 46-year-old is a household name and a fund-raising machine. But is she presidential? Last week the Tea Party icon all but announced a run for the White House in 2012. What better place to broaden her image, shaped by her books - Going Rogue and America by Heart: Reflections on Family, Faith and Flag - tweets, Facebook posts, speaking engagements, and a job on Rupert Murdoch's Fox News, than reality TV, the pop phenomenon?

Palin underscores this with her admiration for reality TV's most famous, and reviled, personality, Simon Cowell. The man notorious for his blunt remarks to hapless showbiz aspirants in American Idol, The X Factor or Britain's Got Talent "can be a little harsh at times", Palin avows in America by Heart, but is "almost alone in his willingness to tell hard truths".

And for all the mawkish footage of the Palins, set amid epic scenery in Alaska, she has unleashed some hard truths for Republicans. Many have begun to regret welcoming her on to the national stage as Senator John McCain's presidential running mate in 2008.

Palin herself is burning rubber. Her two-year odyssey as a political manque has been a wild, scandal-ridden ride. Ardent conservatives worship her. A hot reality show - "Sarah like you've never seen her!" shouts the blurb - may be just the ticket to connect with a wider voting pool.

The show, writes Shushannah Walshe on The Daily Beast website, "may qualify as the earliest, most expensive presidential campaign ad ever made". Even better, for someone who has repeatedly stumbled in media interviews, Palin "never has to face a question that she doesn't like".

And who better to give her a push than Mark Burnett, the Englishman who launched the reality show juggernaut with hits such as Survivor and The Apprentice?

If anyone can broaden Palin's arch conservative base it may be Burnett, whose rags-to-riches story leads from dour Dagenham in East London to an oceanside Malibu mansion. He told Walshe the show was "completely non-political."

On the surface it is. But it is subtle, seeking to erase Palin's abrasive and divisive reputation by reinventing her as an "authentic" candidate ordinary Americans can identify with. "I think open-minded people in the middle will find all the Palins very engaging, a lot of fun and will enjoy the series," says Burnett. That gnashing sound comes from Palin's rivals' teeth.

"Logic doesn't apply to Palin," New York Times columnist Frank Rich noted on Sunday. He sounded exasperated. "What might bring down other politicians only seems to make her stronger: the malapropisms and the gaffes, the cut-and-run half-term governorship, family scandals, shameless lying and rapacious self-merchandising," wrote Rich. Palin's "amateurism and liabilities are badges of honour. She has turned fallibility into a formula for success."

So what does Sarah Palin's Alaska reveal about the Queen of America's Mama Bears, the new crop of female conservatives with political ambitions? Well, like George W. Bush, she has a certain shrewdness and has so far made an end run around her party's political elites. One episode actually features a bear. "Hear that?" says Palin to 9-year-old daughter Piper when the bear growls. "That is a growl!"

It's not certain who, or what, the bear was growling at. But its very presence helps Palin morph from tabloid trainwreck to outdoor gal, a PR chestnut that conjures up backwoods self-reliance. This worked for Ronald Reagan who enjoyed a folksy horseman image. Whether climbing Denali or hunting, fishing and dog-sledding will persuade enough Americans that Palin can steer their nation through increasingly troubled waters, as US power is challenged by China and other contenders, is another question that no amount of scripted reality will answer.

Her political philosophy, fleshed out in America by Heart, features few real clues. She is patriotic and likes small government. President Obama, his health care and economic policy are bad. Ditto feminists, the media and liberals.

However, her show may erase memories of the deer-in-the-headlights fumbler, mercilessly satirised by comic Tina Frey in 2008, as Palin hones her defiant "don't shoot, just reload" image as the toughie who might just shoot the deer. She gets the "lame-stream" media in her sights, while burnishing her conservative credentials.

In one scene she dishes a potential nemesis, journalist Joe McGinniss, who has moved in next door to Palin's Alaskan manse while he pens an unauthorised biography. The 5-metre tall fence that Todd erected to shield her family from McGinniss is, she says, "what we need to do to secure our nation's border".

A hit show is good for Burnett. But while his alchemy might transmogrify Palin's Wasilla Witch image will it boost her polling? A Gallup poll said 52 per cent of Americans did not favour Palin. That's a problem with getting elected. As is her 35 per cent rating with independents, the swing voters who invariably determine US elections. But 80 per cent of Republicans show support. Her popularity puts the wind up the Republican Old Guard, who fear her nomination would be an own goal that helps Democrats.

"There are high standards that the American people have for it [the presidency] and they require a certain level of gravitas," Karl Rove, the GOP strategist lampooned as "Bush's Brain", sniffed to London's Daily Telegraph. "With all due candour, appearing on your own reality show on the Discovery Channel [TLC parent], I am not certain how that fits into the American calculus of `that helps me see you in the Oval Office'."

Palin was having none of this. "Wasn't Ronald Reagan an actor?" she asked. "Wasn't he in Bedtimes for Bonzo, Bozo or something?" Reagan was canonised by Republicans. Peggy Noonan, the Gipper's favourite speechwriter, blasted Palin as a "nincompoop" for the comparison. And Barbara Bush, in classic basilisk tones, praised Palin's looks but thought she was happy in Alaska. "And I hope she'll stay there."

Palin had a response to that too. Interviewed by conservative radio host Laura Ingraham, Palin said while she "loved the Bushes" a majority of Americans objected to "the blue-bloods who want to pick and choose their winners instead of allowing competition".

There is a sense that the baton is being snatched from past elites as younger, more populist conservatives seek power. Palin may have judged the public mood far better than Rove.

She consistently defies expectations. She has strong grassroots presence in conservative states like Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, a loyal support team, a proven on-line communications structure and an enviable money stream. Her public-policy ineptitude may be less of a handicap than liberals fondly imagine. Palin's underwhelming career so far means low expectations can work for her if she raises her game on the stump and in TV debates. And her multi-year deal with Fox News suggests Murdoch, a master at gauging the political weathervane, may regard her as a winner.

After all, he is picking up the tab for her book tour, focused on key primary states. And the Wall Street Journal, Murdoch's US broadsheet, praised her cry to a trade convention in Phoenix, that the Federal Reserve stop "pump priming" the economy. Meanwhile, as Palin reportedly seeks office space in Iowa - an early voting state and a bellwether for presidential hopefuls - the reality show could become part of the presidential tool kit. New York property tycoon Donald Trump, whose comb-over and catchphrase "You're fired!" enlivened The Apprentice, may also seek the GOP nod.

The prospect of Palin and The Donald competing for Air Force One bragging rights and access to the US nuclear weapon launch codes is reality at its most bizarre. "Follow me there!" urges Palin on TLC. Stay tuned to see if she is talking about Alaska or the White House.