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Home / World

Failure of Greece may be an option

NZ Herald
18 Sep, 2011 05:30 PM4 mins to read

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Europe is heading into another punishing week for its single currency as politicians cast about for solutions to the crisis sparked by Greece.

An option that was once unimaginable is starting to be heard: will - should - Greece be allowed to go broke? By defaulting or even exiting the euro, at least temporarily, Greece could ease the burden of loan repayment and a high-cost currency and thus rebuild its export and tourism industries, goes one argument.

To the doctrinal guardians of the euro, this is madness.

It would devastate banks that have lent to Greece, a foretaste of which happened last week when the stock value of French banks plunged dramatically.

And it would prompt other heavily indebted euro-zone countries such as Ireland and Italy to follow suit, leaving the much-trumpeted single currency with the credibility of a dishrag.

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That is why European financial chiefs are girding themselves for another tough week in which they will stick to the same medicine for treating a fever that after a year and a half seems to be worsening.

Tomorrow, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund will scrutinise Greece's programme of austerity, privatisation and tax-raising to see whether Athens is adhering to the terms of its bailout.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has cancelled a trip to New York, where he was to attend the United Nations General Assembly.

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A dark question hangs over the assessment by the three big lending institutions. Can Greece, nursing €360 billion ($600 billion) of debt for a population of 11.2 million, make headway on its borrowings as its economy shrinks?

A two-day meeting of EU finance ministers in Wroclaw, Poland, which ended yesterday, confirmed impressions of squabbling and near-paralysis among decision-makers as this dilemma becomes clearer.

"What's very damaging is not just seeing the divisiveness in the debate over strategy in Europe but the ongoing conflict between countries and the central bank," said US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who was invited by the hosts.

Taking place amid a show of anger by tens of thousands of anti-austerity protesters, the ministers deferred until next month a decision whether to lend Greece US$8 billion ($9.6 billion) in blocked loans from a 2010 bailout.

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They also failed to resolve political reluctance about the rescue. Slovakia is threatening to withhold parliamentary ratification of the deal and Finland is demanding Greek collateral in exchange for its aid.

Nor was there progress on beefing up a rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, that would come to the aid of far bigger economies, such as Italy or Spain.

And talk of a "eurobond" that would be underwritten by all countries was put on hold, in deference to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is battling a wave of unpopularity at home over the Greek rescue.

Against this backdrop, the "D" word - for default - is still barred from the official lexicon but it is heard more and more in the corridors.

Germany's deputy chancellor, Philipp Roesler, leader of the Free Democrats, the pro-business junior partner in the governing German coalition, last week said Europe could not rule out an "orderly default" by Greece, although he was slapped down by Merkel for speaking out of turn.

A subtle sign of potential change comes in plans to strengthen scrutiny over European banks, says the Wall Street Journal.

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The EU is mulling an option whereby banks would be required to model the impact of a default in sovereign debt in their "stress tests", which assess their financial health, it said yesterday. These tests are a key to restoring the credibility of Europe's banking sector.

Last week's drama in the markets revived the nightmare of the 2008 psychosis in which fears of default discouraged banks from lending to each other. With default, "you would get the loss on the Greek debt, of course, but I think much more important is the funding situation", Gary Jenkins of Evolution Securities told Reuters.

"Who is going to be lending the banks money if you have got euro zone sovereigns defaulting and you are unsure about what is going to happen next?"

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