Exit poll says left-wing populists leading Italian election but short of majority

People line up at a polling station near the Vatican, in Rome. Photo / AP

Italy is bracing for the outcome of general elections pitting a resurgent but scandal-prone ex-premier, Silvio Berlusconi, against the populist anti-establishment Five Star Movement.

RAI state TV says an exit poll shows Five-Star Movement leading but far short of majority.

The exit poll by the Piepoli polling agency had the Five-Star with between 29.5 per cent and 32.5 per cent.

The Democratic Party was the next largest party, with between 20 per cent and 23 per cent of the vote, according to the poll.

Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the anti-immigrant League each were polling at between 12.5 per cent and 15.5 per cent. They were running as part of a three party centre-right coalition. The exit poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent.

The 81-year-old Berlusconi voted in his native Milan, where he was confronted by a half-naked activist.

"Berlusconi, your time is over," was written on the bare breasts of the woman who climbed on a table inside a polling station. "My time is over? Yes, that's right and the queue is here," Berlusconi quipped, as reported by news agency Ansa.

Berlusconi leads a rightist coalition seen as the frontrunner, but the Five Star Movement, predicted to do well in the poorer south and among disaffected young voters, could stop it from winning a parliamentary majority.

Polling has now closed with final results due tonight NZT.

"The fact that Berlusconi is still here shows how far our politics has fallen," said one voter in Rome. "Whatever the outcome, it will turn out badly," said another. "We're all very worried."

You don't think this Italian election matters? @glegorano explains why the rise of populism in Italy should make you think again https://t.co/XCcKyTRpKP

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 4, 2018

The third main contender, a centre-left coalition based around the ruling Democratic Party (PD) and led by former Premier Matteo Renzi, is expected to face heavy defeat - but the PD could still hang on to power.

Most analysts are expecting a hung parliament, setting the stage for difficult government coalition talks.

One possibility is for Berlusconi and the PD to form a centrist grand coalition; another - which could spook Italy's EU partners and financial markets - is a M5S-led administration that potentially could include Berlusconi's far-right party ally, the League.

AP, DPA, AAP