EU prepares for national votes on constitution

The European Union embarks on a long and dangerous game of political dice on Sunday with the first of a series of national referenda on a planned EU constitution.

Spanish voters will be the first of 11 of the 25 EU countries to vote on the historic charter, which aims to revamp the world's most powerful integrated bloc of nations. The course will end either in triumph for the EU or plunge it into a deep and enduring mess.

The national votes unfold over the next 18 months, and the last will take place in the most challenging country of all, Britain, where suspicions of Europe and the EU run deep.

At stake is a constitution approved by heads of states and government in Brussels and signed in Rome last October.

The document is essentially a clarifier, bringing together all the many EU treaties and agreements to define the powers of the union and its relationship with the member states.

But it also has clauses that are deeply contested by defenders of national sovereignty who oppose the transfer of further powers to institutions in Brussels.

It streamlines decision-making, extends EU legislation into some new areas of national authority such as asylum and immigration, removes some of the right of national veto in the Council of Ministers (the top political body in the EU), trims the number of national appointments to the executive Commission and increases the powers of the European Parliament.

The outcome of the referendum in Spain is hardly in doubt, given that all major parties favour a "Yes" vote.

Spain has benefited enormously from the EU, which provided it with stability after the death of Franco three decades ago and injected its economy with vast amounts of cash.

Since joining the EU in 1986, Spain has received more than 105 billion euros ($192 billion) in aid from Brussels. Unemployment has fallen from 20.6 to 10.4 per cent. The country's average per capita gross domestic product stood at 68 per cent of the EU-15's average when Spain joined the club; now it is 95 per cent.

The latest opinion polls suggest the constitution will be approved by 80 per cent of Spaniards who intend to cast their vote. The big question, though, is turnout, and some surveys suggest less than half of the electorate will bother to head to the polling stations.

Next in line is Portugal, where the referendum will be held in April, with Luxembourg and the Netherlands soon after. The referendum in France is expected to be held in June, and in Poland in the northern autumn.

In countries where no referendum is being held, the constitution is being submitted to parliaments. Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have ratified.

Political analysts said just one dissension could damage hopes for a constitution and cause political chaos. But whether it is a fatal blow would depend on the country.

In some countries, as in Spain, the referendum is technically consultative. In theory, the legislature could ignore the popular vote and give the constitution the green light. In other countries, though, the law is that the outcome of the referendum is final.

Britain, until now, is the only country where opponents of the constitution appear to edge out supporters. Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to hold the referendum in 2006, which would give the "Yes" campaign enough time to build after a general election predicted to be called in the next few months.

But another question-mark hangs over France, one of the EU heavyweights and a traditional driver of European centralism. Opinion polls point to a lot of wavering in French minds over the constitution. Many confuse it with Turkey's application to join the EU, a bid that is unpopular with many Europeans.

One of the stunts to promote the constitution is to send it into space. Italian astronaut Roberto Vittori, launched by a Russian rocket from Kazakhstan, will take a gold-bound copy of the charter to the International Space Station in April.

The EU Commission hopes the document will be a "symbol of European identity" in its orbit round the globe. A British anti-EU party, UKIP, thinks differently: "The far reaches of outer space are the best place for it".