KEY POINTS:
The struggle for control of an Israeli Government gripped by aftershocks from the failures of last year's bloody Lebanon war has begun in earnest after Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister, called on the Prime Minister to resign.
Livni became the first senior figure in the Cabinet - and
in Ehud Olmert's own party, Kadima - to announce that she had told the Prime Minister face to face that he should quit in response to the official report highlighting the failures of the war.
Livni, who made no secret of her desire to replace Olmert, said after a hour-long meeting with the Prime Minister: "I told him that resignation would be the right thing for him to do. It's not a personal matter between me and the Prime Minister - this issue is more important than both of us."
Her announcement, which was delivered to reporters after the meeting in a notably low-key fashion and which stopped significantly short of a "you go or I will" ultimatum, was widely interpreted as an effort to accelerate the pace of an internal party revolt against Olmert's 13-month premiership.
Olmert was standing firm after the meeting last night and one of his senior aides suggested that he would have no alternative but to sack Livni after her decision not to underpin her call to Olmert by resigning herself.
A spokesman quoted him as telling an emergency meeting of Kadima Knesset members: "I intend to implement the recommendations of the report down to the last detail. I am in a personally uncomfortable position, but I will not shirk my responsibility and will fix all the mistakes."
The stand-off marked a new climax in the struggle to contain the political fallout left by the failure of last year's initially popular 34-day war to achieve either of its main objectives. They were the defeat of Hizbollah and the return of the two Israeli soldiers whose abduction by the guerrilla group on July 12 triggered the conflict.
The 48-year-old Foreign Minister is the most popular politician in her party and emerged unscathed from the Winograd inquiry into the war - unlike Olmert and Amir Peretz, his Defence Minister, who last night was reportedly considering resigning from the Government.
It is not yet clear whether Livni can be confident of commanding a broad-based coalition, which currently stretches from the Labour party, of which Peretz is leader, to the hard-right Yisrael Beiteinu Party, and the ultra-orthodox Shas.
Some analysts were suggesting that the octogenarian former Prime Minister Shimon Peres could emerge as a transitional leader if Olmert bows to pressure from the public to resign. A recent poll found that 65 per cent want him to quit in response to Winograd.
While the Winograd report vindicates Livni's early call for a negotiated exit from a war which in the end cost more than 1000 Lebanese and 150 Israeli lives, it also underlines the problems posed by a Prime Minister and Defence Minister with no top-level military experience - a supposed defect which several politicians and analysts believe could also count against Livni.
While Tal Zilberstein, a strategic adviser to Olmert, said the Prime Minister had "no choice" but to fire Livni, Olmert may yet face a dilemma over whether to do so. By staying in the Cabinet, Livni, as the senior deputy, would automatically become acting Prime Minister pending a leadership contest - thus ensuring she fought an election as an incumbent. If she is outside the Cabinet then Peres would take over in the same way.
On the other hand, to sack her, according to Professor Yoram Peri, a leading Tel Aviv University analyst, might mean "an open war between Mr Olmert and Ms Livni and her supporters", which he said could further damage Olmert as well as their party's currently flagging poll ratings.
Livni said she did not want a general election - current polls suggest the party would trail behind the hard-right opposition Likud Party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu - but instead saw a leadership primary contest within Kadima as the means of choosing Olmert's successor.
She said: "Kadima needs to choose its leadership in a democratic manner, in a primary, and when the time comes I plan to submit my candidacy. Now is the time to restore the public's trust in the Government."
Peri said Livni may have lost "some ground" by openly delivering an ultimatum and doing nothing to harm Olmert.
"She is trying to force [Olmert] to resign without being blamed for it. That is the essence of it."
Many commentators and politicians anyway doubt Olmert's ability to survive beyond July and August, which is expected to see not only the anniversary of the war in Lebanon but also the publication of the final Winograd report.
The woman at centre of power struggle
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (left) has made no secret of her desire to replace Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister. Photo / Reuters
Tzipi Livni was born in Tel Aviv on July 8, 1958, and is a leading member of the Kadima Party. She is Israel's second woman Foreign Minister. The first was Golda Meir, who served as Prime Minister from 1969 to 1974.
Livni was elected to the Knesset as a member of the Likud party in 1999.
She has been a rising star since taking her place in former leader Ariel Sharon's inner circle a few years ago.
A former operative with Israel's foreign intelligence agency Mossad, she served as Justice Minister under Sharon.
Livni comes from a well-known ultra-nationalist family but has endorsed withdrawal from some occupied lands as a pragmatic way to preserve Israel's Jewish majority - if not to achieve a peace agreement.
At times outspoken, she once called Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas "irrelevant".
She is married and has two children.
What can we expect?
If he stepped down as Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert would remain caretaker Prime Minister until a new ruling coalition was formed or an early election was held, a process that could take up to three months. Following are four options for setting in motion the process of establishing a new government:
* Israel's acting President Dalia Itzik, of Olmert's centrist Kadima party, names a successor to form a government after up to two weeks of talks with party leaders to determine who commands a parliamentary majority. Kadima is the largest faction.
* The frontrunners to succeed him are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres, a former Prime Minister, regarded as Kadima's likely choices to replace Olmert.
* Whoever is designated would have up to six weeks to form a government.
* Itzik could name another party leader to form a government, such as former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the rightist Likud, if a majority of politicians were to sign a petition pledging support for him.
* Olmert might resist public pressure to resign, in which case other parties in Parliament - the Knesset - could try to force his hand with a vote of no confidence in his Government.
* The prospect of passing such a measure seems unlikely given Kadima's majority in the legislature. Its coalition now commands the support of 84 of Parliament's 120 seats.
* Kadima's coalition could also crumble in the wake of a public outcry against Olmert, in which case some deputies may vote against him in Parliament to seek his ouster in a bid to secure their own political futures.
* If Parliament topples Olmert it would most likely set a date for an early election, which would have to be within 90 days. A less likely option would be for Itzik to name another party leader to form a government, without an election being held.
* The least likely scenario would be for Olmert to introduce a bill to dissolve Parliament in a desperate bid to remain at the helm. He would be threatening his party with a snap national election that opinion polls show Kadima might lose.
* Such a move could easily backfire against Olmert. He could lose the election or be pre-empted by a rival party that drums up enough support to win a presidential designation to form a new government, without a new election being held.
- INDEPENDENT
