Election of new pope wide-open

VATICAN CITY - The conclave vote to elect a new pope appears wide open with no real indication of who will emerge as the new leader of the world's 1.1 billion Roman Catholics.

Cardinals tonight begin the daunting task of finding a man to fill the shoes of Pope John Paul II in a unique election mixing ancient ritual with ultra-modern technology.

In the nine days of mourning since John Paul's death, media speculation and the bookmakers have tipped the former pontiff's closest aide and arch-conservative German cardinal Joseph Ratzinger as the early leader.

But in papal conclaves, like long-distance races, it is considered a disadvantage to break from the pack too early.

In a process dating back to medieval times, 115 "Princes of the Church" from 52 countries will be locked into the Vatican on Monday afternoon local time (early Tuesday NZT) after a public Mass in St. Peter's Basilica.

Most Vatican experts doubt that Ratzinger, whose conservative dogma has polarised the Catholic world, will be able to garner the two-thirds majority needed to become pope.

Many Catholics say the new pope should be from the developing world, where more than two-thirds of the faithful live.

But the odds are stacked against cardinals like Nigeria's Francis Arinze and Claudio Hummes of Brazil, even though bookmakers put them fifth and sixth among the favourites.

The cardinals emphasised that their choice would be dictated by divine influence rather than lobbying and corridor deals.

"People think that we are going to vote like in an election. But this is something completely different. We are going to listen to the Lord and listen to the Holy Spirit," said Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, himself considered a Third World candidate.

As in medieval times, the cardinals will be banned from communicating with the outside world, but the Vatican has taken new high-tech measures to ensure secrecy in the 21st century.

Mobile phones, newspapers, television, radio and the internet will be banned. A false floor has been built in the chapel, where Michelangelo frescoes adorn the ceiling and walls, to accommodate an array of electronic counter-bugging measures.

The cardinals have yet to decide whether they will hold a vote on the first night. After that they will hold ballots four times a day until they reach the necessary majority.

The cardinals' ballot papers are burned in an old wrought-iron stove inside the Sistine Chapel with additives to make black smoke visible outside if they are unsuccessful and white when a new pontiff is chosen.

- REUTERS