Critics of Trump's handling of the pandemic argue he hobbled preparedness, ignored warnings, downplayed the threat, was slow to take action and is still fumbling.
Trump has shifted blame onto governors saying "frankly, many of the states were unprepared for this" and veered between sombre warnings and risky impatience to "reopen" America. At least he has finally got across to his supporters that they should take the virus seriously. Some Republican governors have chosen not to issue stay home orders.
The virus is immune to the tactics that have served Trump in the past. It has its own timeline, it dominates the news, it can't be distracted.
Neither the virus nor the economic fallout will likely clear by November. Senior US medical official, Dr Anthony Fauci, says a second wave of the virus is likely in the northern autumn. And any vaccine is estimated to be a year away. The pandemic put paid to a very long period of economic growth that began two years after President Barack Obama won election in 2008 amid a financial meltdown during the presidential campaign. This is far worse.
President George W. Bush managed to get re-elected in 2004 as America was fighting two foreign wars, but deaths from the coronavirus have already surpassed US casualties from Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001. Bush's father, George Bush snr, became a one-term president after Bill Clinton made the case in a recession that he was the man for the job.
Aside from highlighting flaws in the health system, Covid-19 is taking a staggering economic toll in the US with at least 10 million already filing for unemployment. The US$2.2 trillion stimulus package passed last month was the biggest intervention ever undertaken by Congress.
At present, Trump's job approval and favourability ratings are at the high end of his usual range. Other leaders have received popularity bounces. The worst is yet to hit in the US, and a backlash could follow.
Presidents usually get credit when the economy is performing well, but elections can become a referendum on the incumbent when it isn't.
That's shaping to be the case this time and in his likely opponent former Vice-President Joe Biden, Trump will face someone with experience in dealing with both economic and health crises. While Trump holds daily briefings, Biden is unable to campaign and conducts interviews from his Delaware basement. But he leads Trump by an average of 6 points in RealClearPolitics.com national polls.
There's a long way to go and doubts over the election itself. Will it need to be conducted only by mail ballot, and if not, will turnout be down?
Being the incumbent is usually an advantage, but this is the biggest of big asks.
• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website
