The West's policy in the Middle East has stumbled from misjudgment to misstep over the past decade, reaching a nadir in the aftermath of the American-led invasion of Iraq. Finally, however, it can claim a success. The rapid crumbling of Muammar Gaddafi's 40-year rule in Libya vindicates a long-running and controversial Nato campaign to overthrow the despot. This five-month air offensive was undoubtedly crucial in persuading many of Gaddafi's troops to lay down their arms, clearing the way for the Libyan rebels to sweep into Tripoli.
That result was not always guaranteed. Several months after Nato's aerial bombardment began, it appeared a stalemate had been reached. The West's intervention had stabilised the rebels' position in Benghazi, but Gaddafi's position seemed equally secure. There were obvious problems with the United Nations Security Council resolution that underpinned Nato's action. It authorised all military action against Libyan forces short of invasion, but, in deference to Arab sensibilities, did not allow the sort of infrastructural destruction that, more than a decade earlier, had brought Serbia to its knees.
The aerial assault on Libya had to be more sophisticated but also to run much longer than the one that had protected the people of Kosovo. This allowed doubts about its effectiveness to build among nations that contributed aircraft. In the end, perseverance paid off. The bombardment not only destroyed much of Gaddafi's arsenal but, equally importantly, diminished his troops' will to fight. The manner in which resistance to the rebels faded away bore testimony to the physical and mental damage that had been inflicted. The rebels, for their part, were buoyed, and their cause was further bolstered by supplies of arms and military advice from the West.
Now it is over to the Libyan people to make the peaceful transition to democracy. There will be no Western troops to muddy the picture. Optimists can point to the fact that the rebels were united enough to orchestrate an uprising in Tripoli to coincide with their advance on three fronts. There are other indications, however, that the path forward will not be straightforward. Just recently, the rebel military commander Abdel Fatah Younis was murdered in circumstances that remain unclear, an event that led to the dissolution of the rebel Cabinet. The rebels must now demonstrate sufficient cohesion to form an Administration that will govern Libya until elections are held.
One certainty is that the sudden end of Gaddafi has provided a shot in the arm for the so-called Arab Spring. The generals in Cairo will be reassessing how long they can stave off elections, and the ultimate triumph of the Egyptian people. In Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad will be sitting even more uncomfortably. Western calls for him to step down over his brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests have been stepped up, and the United States has imposed stricter sanctions. His main fear, however, will be his own people's reaction to the pictures of jubilant Libyans celebrating in Tripoli's Green Square.
