The trajectory of the outbreak, and Trump's fortunes in November, are unlikely to significantly improve in time - unless he drastically reverses his course, as improbable as that seems.
There are actions the President could take to help the situation and his own prospects, starting with an unity address to the country. He could hold an online meeting with all the governors to agree on a strategy, which could include a nationwide mask-wearing directive for Americans when outside. The President could himself wear a mask whenever he appears in public. Hard-hit states could be told to introduce border restrictions. He could outline jobs projects and more financial aid that directly helps families.
Trump's present approach of leaving individual states to primarily deal with the problem is a major failure so far, practically and politically.
It means he does not allow himself the option of taking action to improve the situation yet cannot absolve himself of responsibility because people expect national leadership in a crisis. He leaves himself open to criticism from state leaders. He is not taking advantage of his own incumbency.
By attempting to avoid tackling the pandemic and trying to project a sense of normality about the virus when life is not normal for millions of people, the President risks coming across as callous, out of step and largely irrelevant.
When he has focused on the coronavirus, Trump has made controversial interventions. Now he is pushing for schools to reopen in the northern autumn. Before, he pushed for early economic reopening.
The Washington Post reported at the weekend that Trump is putting "less of his time and energy to managing the pandemic". It quoted an adviser as saying "he doesn't want to be distracted by it ... He's not worried about cases".
Biden leads in polling on every issue of importance to voters, except on who is best to handle the economy. A Quinnipiac University poll last week was the first to show Biden with an advantage on that issue as well. Several Republicans are behind in Senate races and Gallup reports that the number of self-identified Republicans has shrunk by 8 per cent in six months.
The Democrats have been helped by Trump's strategic mistakes. In a pandemic, Trump has pursued his attempts to end the Affordable Care Act, cut support for the World Health Organisation and shown more concern for statues than the living.
With 15 weeks to go, Trump is on defence by his goal line.
