Editorial: Tough tactics play with fire in Gulf, China

Mines aboard the Iranian ship Iran Ajr being inspected by a boarding party from the USS Lasalle in the Persian Gulf. Photo / AP

Editorial

EDITORIAL

Flashpoints in the Gulf of Oman and Hong Kong show how uncompromising policies can produce volatile results.

The US has blamed Iran for blasting oil tankers. Tehran denies responsibility.

Six attacks have occurred just near the Strait of Hormuz, through which extensive oil traffic flows.

A US video of an Iranian boat crew removing an unexploded limpet mine from one of the tankers is underwhelming evidence. But Iran did use mines against oil tankers in 1987 and 1988.

There are also other possibilities: Isis or al-Qaeda cells, Iranian-linked Houthi rebels, agents of Iran's neighbouring enemies in the region.

If Iran is responsible, the latest attacks — on the Kokuka Courageous and the Front Altair — were push-backs from some within the regime in response to completely avoidable escalation.

The Obama Administration's 2015 nuclear pact with Iran, European powers and China could have been a useful step to a better relationship with Tehran. Yet under the Trump Administration, the US has squeezed Iran hard with various pressures, pulling out of the deal, imposing sanctions and sending warships.

The danger is of further escalation. There are now valid fears that tanker traffic needs to be protected. The US could carry out strikes to deter attacks. Iran has at least quickly sent the Front Altair crew to Dubai, suggesting it doesn't want a war.

The possibility of a snowballing crisis was obvious when reports first emerged weeks ago that US troops and warships could be sent to the region.

"If Iran is the culprit, the Trump Administration has only itself to blame for pushing Tehran to take aggressive steps that it has eschewed since the worst days of the Iran-Iraq War," Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, told the New Yorker.

NBC analyst Brett McGurk tweeted that the "US seems to have embarked on its 'maximum pressure' campaign with few allies and little forethought as to unintended consequences or how to respond if key assumptions — e.g. that Iran will implode or succumb and enter talks on US terms — prove false." If there is no rethink and de-escalation, the US could attack Iranian military bases and block Iranian shipping. Iran could openly retaliate against US targets.

Hong Kong has also gone through a major standoff. The Chinese semi-autonomous territory saw a massive march and police crackdown on street protests in response to the Government's attempt to push a controversial extradition law.

The sheer scale and determination of the opposition has been too much for the territory's leader, Carrie Lam, to ignore.

After initially trying to tough it out Lam reportedly consulted a senior Beijing official on the way forward. On Saturday she delayed the bill indefinitely.

It may be only a temporary retreat and Lam will likely try again, but the achievement of the protesters and the willingness of the leadership to climb down should be applauded. It's easier to dig in and make the situation worse.