Editorial: Coming next is an open-ended step into the unknown

People wear face masks to help protect against the spread of the new coronavirus in Seoul, South Korea. Photo / AP

As concerned as people have felt about the spread of Covid-19, the lockdown has provided some stability to the unsettling situation.

We've had simple rules to live by – stay at home, keep your distance, keep to your area – in newly limited lives. We've got something to get through.

What happens next will be an open-ended step into the unknown.

The question all countries which imposed restrictions will have to deal with is how to loosen them and reopen businesses without enabling new coronavirus outbreaks. The attempts by New Zealand and Australia, and key European countries, to keep the money flowing through wage subsidies, offers some hope for an economic bounce back before too long.

It's likely to be a new normal rather than the old normality.

Some restrictions will be lifted to allow more people to work who can't do so from home. But health safety will be a challenge for any places that draw crowds in enclosed spaces. Long-distance work, learning and shopping will grow as trends.

Many cautionary measures will probably remain for some time as scientists work towards a vaccine. Among them could be awareness of safe distance at office lunch areas and in shops; regular wearing of basic masks in public; crowd limits at gatherings and protective gear and shields for checkout and tiller staff. Social businesses such as cafes and restaurants may have to pay attention to issues such as table spacing and providing sanitiser to customers and having more pick-up and drop-off options.

Different countries will be attempting to walk the tightrope at the same time in the next few months. Unlike with the gradual spread of the virus in January, February and March, some won't be able to gain clues as to what works from others.

One lesson from the first wave of countries to face Covid-19 is to not rest on your laurels. China, South Korea, Singapore and Japan have been battling fresh infections as people mix more again. Some cases are linked to returning travellers.

In this regard, New Zealand will make use of its geographical isolation to limit the threat of new infections from abroad through border controls and quarantines.

Community spread could still be hard to suppress. A Guardian report described social gatherings as "rocket fuel" for the virus. Researchers are still learning about it. Can it flare up again in people who have recovered? For how long do former patients have immunity? How widespread are instances where people don't show symptoms?

Our small population should make it possible to employ a programme of mass diagnostic testing and contact tracing to ensure infected people quickly self-isolate. That could require a reliable, quick test to ensure there is little lag between identification and results.

Some form of digital monitoring, perhaps personalised tracking via phone data, and immunity passports have been reported globally as other options. Immunity IDs to allow people who have previously been infected to work would depend on accurate anti-body tests. Such strategies raise privacy and discrimination concerns, especially with workers competing for jobs in a downturn.

The descent from the coronavirus peak will require care and skill.