KEY POINTS:
When a popular President surrenders his chance to run for a second term and names his wife the candidate instead - even when the polls suggest he would almost certainly win, whereas her prospects for victory seem less certain - you have to wonder at the power of
love. Or is it a love of power?
This is the question Argentina finds itself pondering after Government officials confirmed what had been rumoured for months. In spite of solid, if slipping, popularity ratings, its leader since 2003, Nestor Kirchner, will not run in elections this October.
Instead, his fetching, Gucci-clad wife, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will run in his place.
It is an all-in-the-family gambit that at once seems touching and a bit blatant. It is nepotism with a not very well disguised dose of self-interest.
And of course it will instantly elicit comparisons with another husband-and-wife political tag-team in the Americas, otherwise known as the Bill and Hillary show. Argentina could be in for a 16 years of Kirchner rule.
Dynastic politics, of course, are not exactly an unfamiliar phenomenon to most Argentinians. Even the younger generations are intensely aware of the still-enduring legacy of Juan Peron. Though they have broken into different factions, Peronists are still the dominant force in the country's politics. Kirchner has governed under the Peronist banner of social redistribution weaved with capitalism.
On the face of it, giving up the chance to run for a second term runs full in the face of Peronist tradition. Juan Peron, the movement's strong-man founder, was President three times between 1945 and 1974. His departure was not by choice - he died. But the family remained in the Casa Rosada - the Pink House - that is the presidential residence, when his widow, Isabel, took over and continued to govern the country, to mostly disastrous effect, until 1976.
Today, however, it is not Juan or Isabel who are on the minds of voters. Rather, it is that icon of national pride so powerful that after death she still shines as brightly as ever in popular lore - and on the silver screen and Broadway. She is Maria Eva Duarte de Peron - Evita - the first wife of Peron, who earned the adoration of her country's masses from behind her husband's throne as first lady.
Is Cristina Kirchner assuming Evita's mantle? During her years as first lady, she has hardly discouraged comparisons. Campaigning in 2005 for a seat representing Buenos Aires in the Senate - a race she won - she appeared at rallies with photographs of Evita as a backdrop. In recent months, Kirchner himself has evoked Evita while lauding his wife.
Cristina Kirchner too has been a power behind the velvet curtains of the Pink House, holding her place in a tight circle of close advisers to her husband. Together, they mostly duck the media and have drawn charges of arrogance and an autocratic manner. "The Government has become dangerously populist and authoritarian," said Roberto Lavagna, Kirchner's former Economics Minister, who has emerged as the most credible opposition candidate in October. "The only thing it wants is to stay in power at any price."
Until Monday, Kirchner maintained a months-long tease about his intentions. In public, he referred to both his and his wife's pasts as politicians in frozen Patagonia. After December, he joked, the country would be run either by a pinguino or pinguina - a penguin, male or female.
In theory, he had every encouragement to stand for a second term. Internationally, he has maintained warm relations with the United States while at the same time embracing Washington's nemesis in the region, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. By playing tough with international institutions like the International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, he also earned soaring approval from most Argentinians.
It is success that was all the more surprising for a one-time Governor of Patagonia's Santa Cruz state who was elected in 2003 almost by default, with just 22 per cent of the vote, when his main opponent, the former President Carlos Menem, suddenly withdrew from the race.
His stature, however, has grown exactly in parallel to the recovery of Argentina's economy, which suffered a devastating meltdown in 2001-02 that most people still blame squarely on the policies of Menem. In four successive years, the country's economy has grown by an average of 8 per cent.
Until a few months ago, Kirchner was basking in approval ratings approaching 80 per cent while the political opposition had all but melted away. Exactly what swayed Kirchner to defer to his wife divides analysts. The most credible explanation comes from a reading of the constitution, which bars any President from holding the office for more than two successive terms. If his wife wins this time, Kirchner will then be able to run in 2011. And four years later, she could run again - a 16-year reign for the pair of them.
PARTNERS IN POWER
THE CLINTONS
If Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner becomes President of Argentina, it is possible that after her first year she will have an opposite number in the White House very much like her. Hillary Clinton is also a serving senator who before that was First Lady. If Argentina finds itself under the rule of the Kirchner family for 16 years, the US may end up making the same gift to the Clintons. Bill served for eight years and success for Hillary in 2008 would put her on the brink of another eight, if her first term is a success. One difference though is that Fernandez was a shining political figure even while her husband was a mere city mayor.
THE ROYALS
Franois Hollande and Segolene Royal are no longer a couple and it remains to be seen for how long either of them have any serious pretentions to power. Throughout her unsuccessful campaign to be president, Royal insisted her relationship with Hollande was intact. It now turns out that the couple were barely speaking to each other. This revelation has damaged them both: not because they split but because they, in effect, had been caught lying to the French people.
THE MARCOSES
When Fernando Marcos was elected President of the Philippines in 1965, few voters can have known that he and his wife, Imelda, would continue to rule for more than 20 years. In 1969, he became the first president of his country to be re-elected. The country was rewarded with a declaration of martial law in 1972, consolidating power for both himself and Imelda, who assumed a succession of formal government posts. In 1978, she earned electoral legitimacy, becoming a member of the National Assembly.
THE GANDHIS
Rajiv Gandhi was married and and an airline pilot before he entered politics in 1981. After his mother Indira's assassination in 1984, he became leader of the Congress Party, and Prime Minister of India. His wife Sonia entered politics after his own assassination in 1991 and has held several high-profile posts.
- INDEPENDENT
