Divided rule: Republican rebound blow

Two long, difficult years after his triumphant rise to power, President Barack Obama will today try to put a conciliatory gloss on the stinging verdict of voters who yesterday rebuked his handling of the nation's affairs by returning levers of power to the Republicans.

Halfway through his presidency and with the mid-term elections done, he must recalibrate his relationship with a resurgent Republican Party which wiped the Democrats in the House of Representatives but fell short in the Senate.

Last night the Republicans had picked up a net gain of 53 seats and were leading for another 13 Democratic-held seats. If the current trend holds, they could record their largest gains in the House in more than 70 years.

In 1938, the party gained 80 seats during the second term of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. It would be a worse result for the Democrats than in 1994 when they lost 54 seats in President Bill Clinton's first term.

Exit polls showed America is united in its frustration over the economy, over Washington, over where the country is heading. But voters are deeply split about how to fix some of the nation's biggest woes - a ballooning federal debt, joblessness and a sluggish recovery.

With a divided government looming, Obama and Republicans face only two options: compromise or stalemate.

The focus is firmly on Obama even if he was not himself on the ballot.

John Boehner, who will be the Republican Speaker of the House, said voters had sent Obama a message to "change course".

A divided government in Washington could spell a neutering of the "Obama revolution" that sparked so much anticipation in the US - and worldwide - on his election two years ago. A chill could quickly settle both on elements of his domestic agenda and on America's engagement on the world stage, jeopardising progress on topics as wide-ranging as arms control and climate change.

With the vastly expensive mid-term campaign over, attention will quickly shift to 2012. While no one doubts that Obama will be his party's candidate for a second term, he will go into that battle undermined by the punishment delivered by voters. Historians will note that Clinton suffered a large reversal in Congress in the 1994 mid-terms yet still won re-election.

The post-mortem in the party will also dwell on the financial advantage that their opponents enjoyed, in part because of a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that allowed anonymous corporate donations. Democrats tried, without much success, to call into question the ethical credentials of any opponent who accepted such money. But there is little doubt that in the next election cycle they will have to consider how to raise it themselves.

The picture for the Republicans is bright but with storms looming. More power means more responsibility and the risk that gridlock over the next two years will end up hurting them at the ballot box next time as much as the President. Leaders of the party must now calculate whether it will serve them better to launch an all-out assault on Obama or soften their stance to demonstrate bipartisanship.

The gale of speculation about who among their ranks will surface to challenge Obama two years hence starts today. The success of Tea Party candidates brings a sort of horrified thrill at the prospect of Sarah Palin being the nominee.

The headwinds that Democrats faced yesterday were largely fanned by an economy that has failed to recover quickly enough to affect an unemployment rate stuck at almost 10 per cent. Additionally, the Republicans seemed more successful than Democrats in putting out their core message that Obama has presided over an Administration that has somehow been profligate in its spending to reverse the recession and bail out the banks and the car industry.

Obama also suffered at the polls because for all the political capital he spent on getting healthcare reform through, voters in the end seemed more aggrieved about it than grateful. Polls show that support for healthcare reform remains extremely flimsy.

The White House was also unable to gain traction from what in any other time would look like a significant record of legislative success. With his presidential pen, Obama has signed bills into law on areas from reforming Wall Street to boosting small businesses. For some liberal voters it was what he didn't do that rankled: Guantanamo remains open, and gays still cannot serve openly in the military.

It is possible now that even the healthcare reform law could face a slow death. While it would be virtually impossible for the Republicans technically to repeal the whole package, they could starve many of its main provisions by simply withholding the necessary funding.

All through October, Obama tried to ensure the mid-term elections did not turn into a referendum on his performance. But the Republicans always intended otherwise. "This election is entirely about him and this big majority in Congress and what they've been doing for the last two years," Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said.

EXIT POLL DATA

Economy

Sixty per cent named the economy as America's top problem, with no other issue coming close. Nearly 90 per cent said the economy was in bad shape and expressed concern about its condition over the next year - similar to 2008, when President Barack Obama rode that discontent to the presidency. Yesterday, 40 per cent said their family's financial condition had worsened under Obama. About 60 per cent said that overall the US was on the wrong track.

President

Just over half disapproved of how Obama was handling his job, and similar numbers expected his policies to hurt the country. More than a third of voters considered their vote to be an expression of opposition to Obama.

Congress

About three in four expressed disapproval of how Congress was doing its job. Just over half voiced negative views of both the Democratic and Republican parties. About three in four voters expressed negative views on how the federal Government was working.

Tea Party

People considering themselves conservative were outnumbering liberals by two to one. That was a wider margin than in the 2008 presidential and the 2006 mid-term elections, and similar to 1994, when Republicans took control of Congress. About one in four voters considered their vote a message of support for the Tea Party.

Independents

Almost 60 per cent of independents were backing Republican candidates - a big turnaround from 2008 and 2006, when they leaned solidly Democratic. Independents want the Government to intrude less on people and businesses.

Gender/race

Women generally tilt towards Democrats, but yesterday they were about evenly split. Democrats decisively lost the battle for males. Men divided their votes about evenly in 2008 and 2006, but leaned heavily Republican in 1994. Sixty per cent of white voters were backing Republicans. Democrats got solid backing from minorities, including a two-to-one edge with Hispanics.

Age

About 60 per cent voters aged 65 and up were backing Republicans, a stronger margin than in 2008. About the same number in the under-30 crowd were voting Democratic - more modest support than they gave Obama in 2008.

Geography

Only in the East did more people back Democrats. In 2008 and 2006, the South was the only region to vote Republican.

Issues

Given three choices, about 40 per cent wanted Congress to focus on reducing the federal deficit while nearly as many preferred spending to create jobs. Tax cuts finished last. About 40 per cent wanted to continue all the broad tax cuts that were approved under President George W. Bush. Close to halfwanted to repeal the healthcare overhaul Obama enacted this year, while about the same number wanted to expand it even further or leave it in place. Voters were divided about equally into three camps over whether Obama's economic stimulus measures had helped the economy, hurt it or made no difference.

- INDEPENDENT, AP