Democrat races ahead in poll

By RUPERT CORNWELL in Washington

United States President George W. Bush's bid for re-election is stalling as a result of the turmoil in Iraq, according to an opinion poll that shows he has fallen behind in the race for the White House.

Bush trails Democratic challenger John Kerry by 45 to 53 per cent, one of the widest margins recorded for an incumbent President.

For the first time a test of the public mood has shown Bush out of favour in not just the overall contest for the presidency, but also in what was considered his strongest suit: the fight against terrorism.

The Washington Post/ABC News survey shows that after three months in which Bush's foreign policy strategy has been under the spotlight like never before, public opinion may finally be turning against the Iraq war.

The poll confirms that even a record US$100 ($159) million-plus advertising campaign aimed at discrediting his opponent has been no counterbalance to the torrent of bad news for the President - continuing violence in Iraq, damning reports on the pre-war intelligence failures and the September 11 attacks, and, above all, the prison abuse scandal at Abu Ghraib.

Most worrying for Republicans is Bush's plunge in poll ratings in the "war on terror", which once seemed set to carry him to a comfortable election win in November.

Instead, for all the party machine's efforts to brand Kerry as weak on national security, it is the Democrat who is judged likely to do the better job in fighting terrorism.

The margin is a bare 48 to 47 per cent, a dead heat in statistical terms. But it is in sharp contrast to the Washington Post/ABC News poll's finding just a month ago, when the President led by 52 to 39 per cent.

Americans' views of the Iraq occupation are also changing. Only 51 per cent believe the war has improved country's long-term security.

A record 71 per cent say the level of US casualties in Iraq is "unacceptable". And by a majority of 52 to 47, Americans feel the war was not worth fighting.

A similar majority disapproves of Bush's job performance. Although more than four months remain until the election on November 2, not since Harry Truman in 1948 has a President rated so low in the polls at this stage and still won a second term.

In a separate dent to the Administration's credibility, the State Department is issuing revised figures for the victims of terror worldwide last year, showing a sharp increase in the number killed.

A report two months ago claimed that 307 people died in 190 attacks, the fewest since 1969 - enabling Bush to boast that the US was winning the "war on terror".

But new figures, to be announced by Secretary of State Colin Powell, were expected to show that the death toll was close to the 725 who were killed in 2002.

"The facts we had were wrong," said Richard Boucher, Powell's spokesman.

The poll contains other alarming data for the White House.

Bush has based his political image on straight talking. But by a 52 to 39 per cent margin, Kerry leads in the "honest and trustworthy" category - a measure of how much Iraq and the reasons advanced for the war have eroded Bush's credibility.

Even more astonishing, and equally worrying for Bush strategists, those surveyed gave the Democratic candidate a huge 20-point lead when asked which candidate "better understands the problems of people like you".

The finding turns campaign stereotypes on their head. Whatever his failings, Bush was supposed to be the "regular guy" candidate.

Whatever his virtues, Kerry has mostly been depicted as a patrician and extremely wealthy Northeasterner who has little in common with ordinary Americans.

Even if third-party contender Ralph Nader is included in the race for the White House, Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, still leads Bush 48 to 44 per cent, with 6 per cent for Nader.

Most analysts believe that the independent candidate will do badly should he stand, probably picking up less than the 2.7 per cent he won four years ago.

But yesterday, Nader enlisted Peter Camejo, a Green Party activist, to be his vice-presidential running mate. This should bring a formal endorsement by the Greens of Nader, who ran as the party's nominee in 2000.

If so, he will win de facto ballot access in 22 states, including Florida, where Nader votes cost Al Gore the state and the presidency four years ago.

- INDEPENDENT