Crude back above US$110 on Strait stalemate fears

Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, connecting the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Photo / Getty Images

Oil prices have jumped again, climbing back above US$110 ($187) per barrel amid a lack of progress in reopening the key Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, tech stocks took a hit and investors turned their attention to corporate earnings and the outlook for interest rates.

Efforts to end the Middle East war appeared at a standstill, with the United States considering Tehran’s latest offer to unblock the strait, and Iran saying Washington could no longer dictate terms.

Iran has blockaded the waterway – a vital conduit for oil and gas shipments – since the start of the US-Israeli offensive two months ago, sending shock waves through the global economy.

CNN, however, reported that US President Donald Trump was unlikely to accept Iran’s proposal to restore traffic in the strait, as Qatar warned of the possibility of a “frozen conflict” if a definitive resolution is not found.

Oil prices rallied, with Brent crude for June delivery rising 2.7% to $111.19 a barrel.

The benchmark US contract, WTI for June delivery, rose 3.4% to $99.68 per barrel.

Hopes for a deal had been rising going into last weekend but Trump dashed them by scrapping a planned trip by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad.

“Right now, the market is not optimistic about the chance of a deal to reopen the Strait due to Iran’s request to push discussions about nuclear disarmament into the future,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB trading platform.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced that it will withdraw from the Opec and Opec+ oil cartels on May 1, calling it a strategic decision by the major producer.

Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon said the UAE’s move is significant as, alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few nations with significant spare production capacity.

“While near-term effects may be muted given ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the longer-term implication is a structurally weaker Opec” and potentially more market volatility.

AI concerns

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4%, with shares in companies linked to OpenAI hit by a report in the Wall Street Journal that the ChatGPT maker had missed targets on the number of users and revenue.

Shares in Oracle, which is building massive data centre capacity for OpenAI, fell more than 4%.

XTB’s Brooks said that if Open AI struggles to meet sales targets, it may be forced to spend on data centres needed to expand the use of AI.

“This news may threaten the AI investment theme that has driven US stock markets to record highs,” she warned.

The news also means that AI spending by tech giants Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft will come under even closer scrutiny when they report results later this week.

Europe’s main equity markets ended mostly lower.

Stock markets mostly fell in Asia, under further pressure after the Bank of Japan sharply raised its inflation forecasts for the current year and halved its growth projections because of surging oil prices while leaving its key interest rate unchanged.

“This triggered profit-taking. A similar picture could emerge at the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank,” said analyst Andreas Lipkow at CMC Markets.

The US Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting amid the same growing inflationary concerns over the surge in energy costs.

The European Central Bank meets later this week.

Key figures at 3.30pm GMT

West Texas Intermediate: up 3% at $ a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: up 2% at $11 a barrel

New York – Dow: up 0.1% at 49,221.82 points

New York – S&P 500: down 0.7% at 7121.08

New York – Nasdaq Composite: down 1.4% at 24,549.10

London – FTSE 100: up 0.1% at 10,332.79 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: down 0.5% at 8104.09 (close)

Frankfurt – DAX: down 0.3% at 24,293.56 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: down 1.0% at 59,917.46 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: down 1.0% at 25,679.78 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: down 0.2% at 4078.64 (close)

Euro/dollar: down at US$1.1712 from US$1.1722 on Monday

Pound/dollar: down at US$1.3509 from US$1.3534

Dollar/yen: up at ¥159.59 from ¥159.39

Euro/pound: up at 86.70 pence from 86.61 pence

-Agence France-Presse