The cracks are beginning to show. Vladimir Putin's plans are fraying around the edges. Now he's doubling down on staying in control.
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
Russia's special forces, paratroops and elite tank units were meant to surround Ukraine's key cities within two days. Their citizens were supposed to revolt, welcoming Russian troops as liberators. The rest of Moscow's forces would then secure key strategic sites – their menacing presence warning the West to back off.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin's dream has become a nightmare.
Ukraine's cities are holding out.
Citizens are resisting with determination.
Its military remains a coherent – if battered – force to reckon with.
"He underestimated his opposition, overestimated the capability of his own forces. So now we are clearly on Plan B," Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) president Richard Haass told US media this morning.
And that's exposed the incredibly flimsy foundations of Putin's war plans.
His troops didn't know.
They believed they were taking part in just another exercise. Even the mid-level commanders crucial for the planning and preparing were kept in the dark.
Others raced into Ukraine with the expectation of being a peacekeeping force. Not the cutting-edge of a full-blown invasion.
They were there to "de-nazify" the Kyiv government. They were there to "disarm" those responsible for the "genocide" of the Russian ethnic group.
Now they know none of it was true.
"This has got to be Putin's nightmare," says Haas. "Essentially, he depends upon his security forces – not just the soldiers but also inside the country. That's an autocrat's nightmare – as protests begin to mount that the security forces either get overwhelmed or show sympathy with the protesters."
The signs of stress are there. But the cracking point remains unknown
"There are clear reasons to be sceptical of claims that Putin will soon be deposed in a palace coup – or that the existing elite could be removed by mass protests," adds University College London (UCL) professor of Russian politics Ben Noble. "[But] Putin has staked his survival on this."
Appeal for unity
Overnight, Putin's personal press secretary urged Russians to "unite".
"Now is not the time to be divided," Dmitry Peskov told state-controlled media. "Now is the time to unite, to unite around our president."
He was responding to a question about high-profile opposition to the war.
That he had to do so was odd.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, "urged everybody to unite around the president" – the very need to say this tells us something... https://t.co/oD9xvqMLck
— Ben Noble (@Ben_H_Noble) March 4, 2022
Despite the Kremlin's best efforts to suppress them, protests against the "special operation" in Ukraine are gaining momentum.
"Yes, indeed, there are heated debates among cultural figures," Peskov said. "Many support the president, sincerely the president. And there are those who completely misunderstand the essence of what is happening."
But it's not a war. Nor an invasion. Nor an attack.
Calling it such is against the law.
Casualty figures are also an official state secret.
Russian Federation Council (upper house, or senate) member Lyudmila Narusova overnight dared contradict Putin's message.
⚡️Russian Senator Lyudmila Narusova acknowledged huge losses of the #Russian army
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 4, 2022
"Yesterday the conscripts, who were forced to sign a contract or signed for them, were withdrawn from the war zone in #Ukraine. But from a company of a hundred men only four were left alive." pic.twitter.com/2TLJ1U7VRK
She said she knew of a 100-strong company of troops sent into Ukraine. "Only four were left alive," she said.
She added the defence ministry had refused to confirm the casualty report.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin admitted to 498 killed. It has not since updated that figure.
Instead, it's intensified its campaign of information control.
The BBC has been closed. Twitter is banned. Facebook is blocked. All remaining independent Russian newsrooms are offline.
Amid it all, Putin remains "on message".
This morning he told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that video footage and photographs of Ukraine's bombed cities were "propaganda fakes".
"I don't think there's any way he can get his original plan back on track because that ship has sailed," Haass said of Putin's position.
"But because he is who he is because he is an autocrat, he has to be infallible. He can never admit that he made a mistake."
And that means an escalation of fighting in Ukraine.
And a clampdown on dissent at home.
"Putin's tenure in the Kremlin is not necessarily dependent upon public opinion," says Aberystwyth University international politics expert Jennifer Mathers.
"But significant shifts in the mood of ordinary Russians will certainly undermine morale. This could cause some of the powerful figures that surround the president to question the wisdom of continuing down the current path, and perhaps also with the current leader."
#Nebenzia: It is not Russian 🇷🇺 troops, but Ukrainian nationalists that pose a threat to the people of #Ukraine. They keep population of some big cities as hostages, they carry out acts of sabotage and provocations, and then afterwards they attempt to blame Russia for that. pic.twitter.com/t1O02u4pIG
— Russian Mission UN (@RussiaUN) March 4, 2022
They were told there would be no war. Now there is.
About 8000 Russians have reportedly been arrested for protesting the invasion. This includes everyone from schoolchildren to elderly war heroes.
Last night, a group of 12,000 healthcare workers delivered a petition addressed to Putin demanding an end to the fighting.
Extraordinary comments from Putin just now.
— Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva) March 4, 2022
Says Russia has “no ill intentions towards its neighbours” and calls for international cooperation to return, for relations to normalize pic.twitter.com/r00LJCeLlI
"We, Russian doctors, nurses and paramedics, strongly oppose the military actions carried out by Russian armed forces on the territory of Ukraine," the petition reads.
"Our relatives, friends, patients and colleagues are located on the attacked territories. There is not a single person among them who would benefit from the ongoing bloodshed."
They join a growing list of prominent Russian individuals and organisations. Chess groups. Theatre companies. Science bodies.
"There are already cases, though, of signatories facing negative consequences, including losing their jobs," says Noble.
"As well as the detentions at protests, this serves as a clear reminder of the bravery of those publicly opposing the war."
Putin's most significant oversight may be his own troops.
The shock of encountering determined, brutal and bloody opposition has proven severe.
Some Russian soldiers are reportedly abandoning their tanks. Multimillion-dollar radar and anti-aircraft missile vehicles are left parked on the side of the road. Armoured personnel carriers sit empty – their fuel tanks drained.
The exact extent of this collapse in coordination and morale is uncertain. But Ukraine is eager to promote each and every example.
Ukrainian farmer pulling an abandoned Russian Tor-M2 9A331M TLAR. Possibly the same one previously videotaped. https://t.co/z4nJF4yX0C pic.twitter.com/fKhaz97aHo
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 4, 2022
"Clearly, they have moral troubles," says Haass. "The Russians aren't used to fighting this kind of war. The equipment looks old. The troops don't look well-trained. They're not motivated. They don't seem to understand what it is they're doing and why."
It's a similar story at home, among spouses, friends and parents.
Putin signed a state decree in 2015 declaring all military deaths a state secret. So families fear the worst when they lose contact.
Ukraine knows this.
"When Russian soldiers are captured, they are allowed to phone their families – both to assure those back home that they are alive but also to convey to them the reality of this war," says Mathers.
"If there is one thing that can effectively counter the Kremlin's narrative ... it is personal knowledge from trusted sources of information – such as the testimony of combatants delivered to their parents. And these parents will share this knowledge with their extended family, with neighbours, with co-workers, and with friends."
40-49. Lets move back to the 'The gift that keeps on giving' in Kharkiv Oblast; the 200 Motor Rifle Brigade. Outside 4th Gds Tank Div covered in my Sumy thread, this unit seems to provide UAF with most booty. See other examples with⭐️earlier in this thread https://t.co/sABBswlxpL
— Dan (@Danspiun) March 4, 2022
Barrister says prosecutors focused on messages to undermine Erin Patterson's family ties.