Covid 19 Delta outbreak: Australian epidemiologists say NSW has 'flattened the curve'

Sunbathers gather on Coogee Beach on September 12 as Covid restrictions were eased. Photo / Getty Images

After weeks of warnings from health and government authorities as the Delta variant spreads across the state, there is some good news from experts for New South Wales.

A number of leading epidemiologists have revealed they now believe NSW has "flattened the curve" after 11 weeks of lockdown, claiming high vaccination rates, particularly in Covid hot spots, have been crucial to regaining some control of the outbreak that has ravaged the state.

"We've now got a sense that we've got this wave under control in NSW ... it's working," they said.

But, they warn, the state is not out of the woods, with hospitalisations set to rise and cautions for the most vulnerable against the virus.

Despite persistently high cases — NSW recorded 1257 new cases on Monday — Professor Catherine Bennett, Chair of Epidemiology at Deakin University told the ABC's David Lipson: "I think we've got a really good sign that we are now seeing this curve flatten."

It came on the day Prof Bennett predicted the country would achieve "tolerable disease control by early 2022".

Prof Bennett cited the recent drop in Covid-19 case numbers, from almost 1600 on Saturday to just over 1200 on Monday.

Since the beginning of lockdown, case numbers pointed consistently upward over the weeks, but now the numbers are starting to dive.

"It's fantastic news, it's what you predict, what you hope to see, what we know from data overseas, but it's so fantastic to see it playing out this way in real-time, in our country."

Professor Gregory Dore from the Kirby Institute, UNSW echoed the claims, saying: "There's some encouraging data over the last week that suggests things have stabilised."

Prof Bennett said high vaccination numbers in hot spots across Sydney "absolutely appear to be making that difference".

"UK data tells us you can expect a third less infection even two weeks after your first dose so we're starting to see that real effort to lift the vaccination rate translate to better protection in the community and that then translates to a much higher level of control."

Almost 47 per cent of NSW residents are now fully vaccinated, while 78.8 per cent have had their first dose.

Vaccination rates are the highest in Covid-19 hotspot areas with Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland and Blacktown in Sydney's west topping the list.

Prof Bennett said high vaccination numbers in hot spots across Sydney 'absolutely appear to be making that difference'.

Prof Bennett also predicted Victoria would see a similar pattern in two weeks once vaccination rates matched their northern neighbour.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian is yet to comment on the matter but said on Monday: "In the Greater Sydney area, we are seeing a stabilisation in some local government areas of concern and that's positive. We hope that continues."

She also warned residents not to be complacent and that things could change if people don't adhere to the rules.

"We have seen also an increase in cases in the inner-city areas of Glebe add Redfern and we ask communities in those areas to please come forward and get vaccinated, but also to make sure they're sticking to the Covid restrictions.

"We are concerned that an unexpected event, a super spreader event can suddenly have a major setback and so whilst people start enjoying some things they couldn't enjoy last week I urge the community please do not get complacent, do not let your guard down."

Despite the good news, in a new journal Learning to live with Covid-19 in Australia: time for a new approach Prof Bennett warned against expectations of an "immediate return to normal life" once vaccination targets of 70 per cent and 80 per cent are met.

"The virus is in the community, the Covid-19 transition has begun, and we are on track to live with the virus, but control the disease, from the first quarter of 2022," she said.

Prof Bennett predicted "masks indoors will be the last precaution to go, and large gatherings the last to return, although large events could happen sooner if we go the way of other countries and implement vaccine passports".

Controversy has surrounded the implementation of vaccine passports with Berejiklian confirming on Monday: "The government is yet to finalise its plans in relation to what happens at 80 per cent double dose."