That's "because there can be a delay between a person becoming ill with Covid-19 and subsequently requiring a hospitalisation, and because cases in the current outbreak have a median of 11 days between onset and death, hospitalisations and deaths are under-reported," according to the newest surveillance report.
And secondly, that figure is set to rise in the weeks ahead, with NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian revealing a "peak in cases" was still coming.
"All the modelling indicates to us that the peak is likely to be here in the next week or two, and the peak in hospitalisation and intensive care is likely to be with us in October," Berejiklian said.
Professor in epidemiology and public health specialist at the University of Melbourne Tony Blakely has told ABC News Breakfast NSW will hit 3000 cases a day – or "possibly more" – before we reach the peak.
"It's going at about 5 per cent per day increase and that should plateau off. So as the vaccine coverage goes up, that increase will plateau out," he said.
"And they're heading to you know, a couple of thousand, maybe 3000 cases before the vaccine dose catches up with them.
"The health services will be under pressure, but … we're all going to have to deal with it because next year when we open the borders, we will have high hospitalisation numbers for at least a year."
He said the peak in cases would be linked to a number of "trade offs" – and disputed Berejiklian's key claim that October will be the worst month for the state.
According to Prof Blakely, that peak won't arrive until November, which means NSW residents will be facing many more weeks of pain ahead before noticing any relief.
"So for example, if we allow some businesses to open up in October or November or let the kids back to school, that will increase the transmission a bit," he said.
"And we need to find ways elsewhere in society that we can reduce it to try to walk our way through to about the first week of November when the case numbers should peak and the vaccine coverage is catching up with it."
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has repeatedly warned citizens the state's Covid situation will get worse before it gets better. Photo / Getty Images
NSW's Covid plan as 'peak in cases' loom
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has repeatedly warned citizens the state's Covid situation will get worse before it gets better.
Berejiklian is set to release modelling in the days ahead which will reveal just how dire the Covid crisis will be in October, which experts believe will be the toughest period since the pandemic began.
"All the modelling indicates to us that the peak is likely to be here in the next week or two, and the peak in hospitalisation and intensive care is likely to be with us in October," Berejiklian said.
"I will present the modelling this week which will include not only what is foreshadowed to be a peak in cases but also the peak in hospitalisation, the peak in intensive care. They are relevant factors."
Lockdown enters 11 weeks
Covid-weary Greater Sydney residents are waking to their 11th week in lockdown, as the current restrictions drag on.
The city first entered lockdown back in June.
Since then, it has been extended multiple times, with a string of new rules announced.
A woman in her 50s from western Sydney died at Blacktown Hospital; a woman in her 70s from southwestern Sydney died at Campbelltown Hospital; and a man in his 70s from southwestern Sydney died at Liverpool Hospital.
It was reported a baby and a child aged under 10 have been placed on ventilators in a Sydney intensive care unit as the number of Covid-infected children in NSW climbs to 2000.
The infant is believed to be one of the youngest children with Covid ever treated in an ICU in Australia.
