Comment: Australian result shows that the Tories, too, can seize victory

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to party supporters. Photo / AP

Australia rejected the most Left-wing Labor Party in a generation yesterday, led by the low-energy Bill Shorten, and re-elected the Liberal-National Coalition, led by the good friend of Britain, Scott Morrison.

This is a shock to the pollster and pundit class - every poll for years, even the exit polls on election night, pointed to a Labor victory.

The Australian people had a different idea.

The Shy Liberal Voter came out in droves.

There was simply no mood for change.

"In 2007, when Labor took power, we felt a massive mood for change at Australia House in London [the largest voting booth in the world]. Turnout was down [this year], showing a lack of enthusiasm for a Shorten Labor government," says Jason Groves, of Australian Liberals Abroad in the UK.

The result is reminiscent of Britain's 2015 general election result, in which a disciplined campaign led by Aussie election whizzes Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor unexpectedly beat the front-runners.

It is a huge turnaround.

Just six months ago the Liberal Party was on the path to defeat until they changed leader - an important lesson for Britain's Conservative Party.

Australia is divided between what I call Inners - avocado-munching cosmopolitan liberals in the inner-city - and Outers - conservative traditionalist voters in the suburbs.

This is similar to that identified by commentator David Goodhart's split between Somewheres and Anywheres in the UK.

Under the leadership of Morrison, the Liberal Party won swathes of Outer seats including those lost under the leadership of Inner Malcolm Turnbull.

"It does seem clear that where having and keeping a job is critical, they vote Liberal," re-elected Victorian Senator Jane Hume told me.

The swings against the Liberal Party in Inner seats, such as the wealthy parts of Melbourne, were not big enough to lose government.

Nevertheless, this dynamic explains the highest profile thrashing of the evening - when former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his safe Sydney seat to centrist independent Zali Steggall.

Abbott was ill-suited for an inner-city seat that voted 75 per cent for same-sex marriage in 2017: a mirror of how Kensington swung against the Tories in 2017.

The Liberal Party largely avoided the cultural divide dynamic by focusing on the economy, stupid. In every campaign the main issue has been jobs and growth.

Its formula was simple: keep more of your own money, we will build the economy, and get the state out of your life.

The angriest people at the booths were retirees, set to be slapped with Labor's "Retirement Tax" - increased taxes on share investments.

Labor ran the same old campaign promising more taxes and state intervention. It was Corbyn Lite but without the Magic Grandpa.

The message for the Conservatives in the UK is clear: create brand differentiation from Labour, be the party of lower taxes and aspiration - and never give up.

Then an unexpected victory could be heading your way.

- Matthew Lesh is head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute and author of Democracy in a Divided Australia.