Clinton absence spells either boost or bust for Kerry

4.00pm - By ELLEN WULFHORST

NEW YORK - Bill Clinton, considered to be the Democrats' biggest campaign draw, will be sidelined by illness from much of the presidential race -- spelling either boost or bust for John Kerry, depending who's talking in the spin-driven world of US partisan politics.

Clinton, who had declared himself a "foot soldier" on behalf of the US Senator from Massachusetts seeking to unseat Republican President George W Bush, will need two to three months to recuperate after Monday's quadruple heart bypass surgery, doctors say.

That means he'll be off the campaign trail as the race enters its final hectic stages ahead of the November 2 election.

Democrats on Tuesday put their best face forward, while Republicans declared that Bush will reap the benefits of an absent Clinton.

"It is potentially devastating for the Kerry campaign," said Republican strategist Roger Stone. "Clinton is clearly the Democratic Party's greatest surrogate. Having him off the stump for the last two months is very damaging."

Clinton's absence is far from damaging, countered Democratic consultant Jerry Skurnik.

"If anything, it's probably a slight plus for Kerry because when Clinton does campaign, it probably won't energise the anti-Clinton people as much as it would normally," he said.

Still enormously popular and enormously polarising, Clinton has been active since leaving the White House, giving speeches, writing and promoting his best-selling memoir, My Life.

"It's ironic," Skurnik added. "When Clinton does something for Kerry, some pundits say it hurts Kerry. Now that he won't be out campaigning for Kerry, at least for a while, they say it hurts Kerry. You can't win."

Both sides do agree that Clinton, 58, can still do plenty for Kerry if his recuperation goes as expected.

Doctors said on Tuesday that his recovery was going as well as they hoped. "President Clinton is off the breathing tubes, and he is doing just fine," said his doctor, Craig Smith.

Clinton is likely to remain hospitalised for four or five days and make a full recovery within two to three months, doctors said.

Even laid up, Clinton can still advise the Kerry campaign, and a number of his former staffers have joined the Democratic campaign lately.

"He is in fact, let's face it, the most recent Democrat to win a nationwide election, as are his people," Stone said.

Gone are the days of the failed 2000 campaign by Democrat Al Gore when strategists tried to distance their candidate from the scandal-plagued Clinton.

Clinton can offer his presence in mailings and telephone campaigns and perhaps hit the campaign trail in the end, strategists said. The former president is likely to be most effective in encouraging minority voters to go to the polls in such key battleground states as Ohio and Florida, observers say.

"Clinton is the great closer, and he will hopefully be well enough to do that," said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist. "Timing is everything, and there's still a lot of time left in this campaign."

It also seems that Clinton can't restrain himself from politics. Even from the hospital this weekend, the Clinton family issued a statement declaring: "We are fortunate to have great health care coverage and continue to hope for the day when every American will enjoy this basic right."

Millions of Americans have no health coverage because they cannot afford it, and Kerry has pushed health care as a big issue in his campaign for the White House.

- REUTERS