China war talk rattles Aussies

The National People’s Congress sits in the Great Hall of the People, where a bill mandating force if Taiwan declares independence was passed. Pictures / Reuters

CANBERRA - Australian diplomatic nerves have been stretched further by the passage of China's new law allowing a military attack on Taiwan if the island formally declares its independence.

Canberra is precariously balanced between its close alliance with the United States - which saw it override international and domestic opposition to join the war in Iraq - and its desire to boost relations with Beijing.

Analysts have warned that the US would expect Australia to join it in any conflict erupting over the Taiwan Strait, and Canberra has conceded that it would face obligations under the Anzus pact.

Last week China warned Australia against invoking the alliance in any dispute over Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province that must inevitably be reunited with the mainland.

Australia and China have just finished talks on a feasibility study for a free-trade agreement, following the conclusion of last year's free-trade pact between Australia and the US.

The significance attached to the balancing act between the Pacific's two greatest powers was demonstrated with the August 2003 visits to Canberra, in the same week, of US President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao.

But while Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday that the new law allowing "non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity" was not a war bill, it has sounded clear warnings in Canberra.

The law, which follows earlier injunctions to the military to prepare for possible war, would be invoked "in the event that the 'Taiwan Independence' secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China".

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer yesterday trod a delicate line, confirming on one hand that under Anzus Canberra did have obligations to the US over Taiwan, but said this did not include an automatic obligation to go to war.

Downer also urged a peaceful reunification of China - official Australian policy since 1972 - and warned Taipei against precipitate action.

"We would be bound to consult with the Americans and the Anzus treaty could be invoked, but that is a very different thing from saying that we would make a decision to go to war," he told ABC radio.

"We have no circumstances where we precommit ourselves to participating in a war which is entirely hypothetical ... we just don't know what we would do."

Downer said Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian would understand that a declaration of independence would cross the red line and inevitably lead to war.

"We want to see on one hand China resolve the Taiwan question peacefully through negotiation and I'm optimistic that will happen," he said. "On the other hand we don't want Taiwan to take action that will be highly provocative."

But Australian policy recognises that Taiwan will continue to be a source of serious tension between the US and China and that, while small, "the possibility of miscalculation leading to conflict is real".

The strength of the military, strategic and economic alliance with the US would place severe pressure on Canberra to join Washington in any dispute with China.

But Canberra also recognises that China's growing economic, political and strategic weight is the "single most important trend in the region".

Australia has been working hard for closer ties with Beijing, backing moves for a free-trade agreement with a range of bilateral measures and a growing desire to improve military and security co-operation.

China is Australia's third-largest merchandise trading partner, with Australian exports growing by 21 per cent last year to almost A$11 billion.

Canberra also has strong economic ties with Taiwan, despite the lack of diplomatic relations, with two-way trade of A$7 billion and Australian investment in the island of A$470 million. Taiwanese investment in Australia is more than A$1 billion.

Legislating for force

China's Parliament passed a controversial anti-secession bill yesterday that could give China the legal basis to attack Taiwan if the self-ruled island declares independence.

The vote by the National People's Congress came after President Hu Jintao told the Army to be prepared for war and to put national defence "above all else".

The measure was approved by a vote of 2896 to 0, with two abstentions.

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since the end of China's civil war in 1949.

China has vowed to bring Taiwan and its 23 million people back to the fold eventually, by force if necessary, but has said repeatedly that the anti-secession law is aimed merely at peaceful reunification.

Cross-strait trade, investment and tourism have blossomed since the late 1980s and China is now Taiwan's largest trading partner, reaching a record US$83 billion last year.

Taiwan directly invested a total of US$40.8 billion in its giant neighbour from 1993 to 2004. Nearly a million Taiwan businessmen and their families live on the mainland.