Caught in an agony of suspense

By KIM SEGUPTA

They know a war is inevitable, many will die, and those who survive will have their lives changed forever. And, most of all, they are afraid something calamitous, terrible even by the standards of this violent country, will take place in Baghdad.

The cautious optimism present even a month ago, that the return of the UN inspectors would prevent a conflict, has evaporated in the Iraqi capital.

The two cities which will bear the brunt of suffering, it is commonly said, are Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's birthplace and powerbase, which the Americans have threatened to pulverise, and Baghdad, where the Government will make its last stand.

Every morning the people of Baghdad see the convoys of UN inspectors set off on their searches. They can also use one of the internet bars in the city to see reports in the Western media of how Washington has already made plans for Iraq under American invasion and occupation.

In the latest version, according to the New York Times, the CIA and the Pentagon are said to have identified 2000 members of the country's elite, and categorised them into those who would be tried for war crimes, and those who could be turned against the regime and help to administer a post-Saddam Iraq.

Those in the first category would include senior military, security, intelligence and Ba'ath Party leaders, members of Saddam's family and others "inextricably linked" to him. The Iraqi leader appears to be in a category of his own, and George W. Bush is said to be ready to revoke the executive order forbidding the assassination of a foreign leader.

Watching pictures on television, at the Shah Bandar cafe, of the UN inspectors foraging through another "suspect site" for weapons of mass destruction, Karim Hassan Noor shook his head.

"All this is now for show. It does not matter if they find nothing, the Americans will find an excuse and attack us when they are ready."

The 42-year-old teacher has nothing but foreboding for the future. "We know war in this country, but this time it is going to be much, much worse than before," he said.

"We have suffered all these years under sanctions and now we are going to get bombed by Bush. But there are other problems internally, there will be elements who will try to take advantage of the situation, everyone has guns here, and there are lots of scores to settle."

Noor's companion Majid Hussein, an unemployed engineer, nodded. "There are people over there who will try to come in, that is why we are afraid for ourselves and our families."

"Over there" is Saddam City, a vast, sprawling, suburban slum half an hour's drive from the centre of Baghdad. It is the home of 40 per cent of the capital's population of 10 million, and almost every one is a Shia.

They make up 60 per cent of the country's population, but see the levers of power staying mainly in the hands of the Sunni minority who, excluding the Kurds, comprise 16 per cent of the population.

The township exploded four years ago with the assassination of Grand Ayatollah al-Sadr and two of his sons, which Shia clerics blamed on the regime. Here people look at strangers with wariness and are even more careful with their words.

A young man in his 20s said "We do not want the Americans and the British to attack. But yes, there is unhappiness here and many people have guns. I will not do anything myself, but there will be people who will do some very bad things".

It is a very brave or foolhardy Iraqi who talks publicly about regime change, and Abbas Najib is neither, but he acknowledges that is what a war may bring.

"The Americans will want to put in a puppet, or they will try to rule Iraq themselves," he said. "We all know they want our oil, they will try to control it whatever happens. If anything should happen to the President, and we all hope nothing does, then Iraqis should decide their own future."

One of the chief apprehensions in many minds is the prospect of chemical and biological weapons being used. The official Iraqi position is, of course, that the country no longer possesses any.

"Of course the Americans could use it against us, we know they have lots of these things, so yes, that is worrying," said Najib.

Most of those who can go - diplomats, aid workers, businessmen - are planning to pull out. But that is not an option for most of the people in the Iraqi capital.

"All we can do is wait, this is the worst part, waiting and knowing what is going to happen will be very bad," said Noor, lifting his cup of chai at the Shah Bandar.

- INDEPENDENT