Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi leave Palam Air Force Base after the Russian leader’s arrival in New Delhi on Thursday. Photo / Getty Images
There will be handshakes, private dinners and the launch of an Indian version of Russia’s state-owned RT news channel.
But Narendra Modi is walking a fine line when it comes to his public embrace of Vladimir Putin, who arrived in New Delhi on Thursday afternoon for a state visit.
It was only two months ago that the Indian Prime Minister welcomed Sir Keir Starmer to Mumbai.
During his flight, Starmer was told that Modi had recently wished Putin a happy birthday. Amid the bonhomie before signing a free-trade deal, Starmer permitted himself a minor jab – “just for the record”, he would not do the same.
India has leaned closer to Moscow since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, in particular through purchasing vast quantities of Russian oil at knockdown prices. But the deepening ties have come at a cost to relations with the West.
Donald Trump brought in a 25% additional tariff on Indian exports over the trade, taking the total rate to 50%.
As the two men settle into a working lunch at the presidential palace on Friday, Modi will have to gauge how far he can push his relations with Putin without inviting further sanction from his erstwhile guests in the West.
Putin’s wishlist requires little Kremlinology to decipher. There is value in the ceremony alone, a sign to the world – and, in particular, Moscow’s allies in the global South – that the war has not wholly isolated the Russian leader. As is customary for visiting dignitaries, he is scheduled to lay a wreath on the grave of Mahatma Gandhi.
Both subtly and through concrete deals, Putin will attempt to draw Modi further into his orbit, inviting a rupture with the West that would play to his benefit.
He will seek to revive purchases of Russian oil. India’s imports surged from 2.5% before the war to 35% last year, with major refineries taking in cheap crude sold via the “shadow fleet” vessels that skirt Western sanctions.
But India has cut back, first following Trump’s tariffs and next after the announcement of sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, the Russian state oil giants. Before the visit, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s chief spokesman, told Sputnik India the reduction would be temporary as Moscow has “technology” to skirt the sanctions.
Much of Russia’s messaging before the summit has focused on defence.
The Indian Prime Minister has struck a number of deals with his Western partners in the past year, pursuing a Janus-faced defence procurement policy that demands careful calibration.
In April, Modi signed a £5.5 billion ($12.7b) agreement with France for 26 brand new Rafale fighter jets.
In October, he signed a £350m deal to purchase multi-role missiles made in Northern Ireland for the Indian army. Seeking to appease Washington, deals have been struck in recent weeks for the purchase of Javelin and Excalibur missiles, while a £708m agreement was signed to maintain India’s fleet of “Seahawk” helicopters.
But today, a £1.5b deal has been agreed for India to lease a Russian nuclear submarine, as Modi seeks to appease both sides.
Around 60% of India’s military inventory comes from Russia, with ties stretching back to the Soviet era. All this equipment, including the Su-30MKI fleet, T-27 and T-90 tanks and Kilo-class submarines, requires Moscow’s support to maintain.
High on the agenda will be the S-400 air defence system, which India called upon during the limited armed conflict with Pakistan this year, and BrahMos long-range missile, jointly produced with Russia.
Modi is likely to purchase further missiles for the S-400, while Indian media reports suggest there will be talks over the newer S-500 system.
Tip the balance too far in favour of Moscow and the West may curtail such deals – leaving New Delhi unable to procure the top-range military equipment it feels it requires to face down the threat from Pakistan.
Much focus will fall on the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Peskov said it was the “best” in the world and would be “on the agenda”. But local analysts disagree on its merits, and New Delhi will not feel compelled to purchase a substandard aircraft when it is still smarting from several Pakistani shoot-downs in May and when they have French planes in production.
In addition, India’s military planners will be wary of delays in the delivery pipeline. New Delhi is still awaiting the delivery of two S-400 systems purchased in 2018, with Moscow tied up by the war in Ukraine.
With defence a sensitive subject, Modi is likely to shift the focus on to the softer terrain of economic co-operation. India’s trade deficit with Russia has surged from £4.5b in 2021 to £45b last year.
In an attempt to redress the balance, the Indian Prime Minister will seek to open Russia to more Indian goods, including pharmaceuticals and electronics. Facing US tariffs, businesses need new markets.
Part of the value in the summit for Modi lies in showing the West that he has options: if they push too hard, he could fall deeper into Putin’s arms.
On the other hand, should the pair’s summit attract too much criticism in the Western capitals, Modi can attempt to repair the damage through more deals with his partners there, notes Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institute think tank.
India is too big to pick sides, Modi seeks to show. With GDP growth of 8%, it is a partner too attractive to shun on either side of the new Iron Curtain.
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