Byzantine rules of presidential politics

By ANDREW BUNCOMBE

Chief justice William Rehnquist, head of the United States Supreme Court, failed to return to work yesterday, adding a potential complication to the US presidential election.

Four years ago, the Supreme Court voted 5-4 on party lines, ruling in George W. Bush's favour in Florida and handing the Republicans the White House. If the much-anticipated legal wranglings of this election end up in the Supreme Court, the absence of conservative Rehnquist, who is having chemotherapy for thyroid cancer, would probably tie the court 4-4.

But that is just one ingredient in a potentially hugely complicated election. Because of the US electoral college system and its Byzantine rules, it is possible - albeit unlikely - that America could find itself with Bush as President and Democrat John Edwards as his Vice-President.

Also possible and equally bizarre, Kerry could be President and Dick Cheney would retain his position.

These unlikely scenarios stem from the electoral college. The college was a compromise by the Federal Convention in 1787 to enhance the separation of the powers while preventing a direct, democratic election of the President by the people.

Rather than voting for a candidate, voters in each state vote for "electors" who in turn cast their vote for the candidate. There are 538 electors - one for each of the 100 senators (two for each state), one for each of the 435 members of the House of Representatives (assigned according to state population) and three for the District of Columbia.

California, the most populous state, has 53 representatives and two senators, giving 55 electors. The least populated states, such as Alaska, Wyoming, Delaware and the two Dakotas have just three electors.

In 48 of the 50 states, electors are assigned on a winner-takes-all basis. So if the Democrats win a majority in California, as is anticipated, they get all 55 of the electors. Nebraska and Maine use a different system. But in more than 200 years neither of these states has split their vote. This time the Republicans might win one of Maine's four votes. Voters in Colorado will also be asked whether they want to divide their nine votes.

The electors meet on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their votes. This year that will be December 23.

So the two candidates are campaigning not to win the popular vote - which Bush lost by 500,000 votes in 2000 - but for a majority of the electoral votes. The magic number is 270.

With just a handful of states still up for grabs, both candidates need to win two of the "big three"; Pennsylvania with 21 votes, Florida with 27 and Ohio with 20.

The oddest possible scenario would be a 269-269 tie, which could result from at least 33 different combinations of electoral votes. In a so-called "contingent" election, which has not happened since 1825, the President would be chosen by the House of Representatives. Each state's delegation would vote among themselves for whom they wanted. At present, the Republicans are reckoned to control 29 of the 50 delegations, so Bush would be elected.

The Senate elects the Vice-President by a majority. As the Republicans hold a majority it is presumed Cheney would be re-elected, though disgruntled individuals could opt for John Edwards.

If the House fails to select a President by inauguration day, (January 20) the Vice-President-elect serves as President until the House makes its choice. If the Senate also fails to select a Vice-President, the Speaker of the House serves until a decision is made.

* The first Election Day votes were cast and counted last night in the mountain hamlet of Hart's Location, New Hampshire, with Bush and Kerry each receiving 15 votes. Independent Ralph Nader received one. In 2000, Hart's Location residents went for Bush 17-13 over Democrat Al Gore.

- INDEPENDENT




Poll closings


All times today NZT

Noon: Indiana, Kentucky (eastern).

1pm: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky (western), New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.

1.30: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia.

2: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas.

2.30: Arkansas.

3: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

4: Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah.

5: California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.

6: Alaska.

Note: not shown are situations where (a) states have a small part of their population in a different time zone or (b) some states allow local jurisdictions such as counties or townships to close their polls at a different time.

- NZPA