KEY POINTS:
The Bush Administration is expected to announce a massive series of arms deals in the Middle East tomorrow which is being seen as part of a diplomatic offensive against the growing influence of Iran in the volatile region.
The centrepiece of the deals is an agreement between the
US and a group of Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, which could be worth at least US$20 billion ($26 billion), according to news reports. At the same time 10-year military aid packages will be renewed with Israel and Egypt.
The main thrust is the supply of advanced American weapons to long-term Arab allies in the Gulf. They include Saudi and five other Gulf states: the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. All of those countries have been jittery over the growing power of Iran and the possibility that Tehran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb. The supply of US arms not only gives them greater military power to counter Iran but also cements them further into American influence.
In fact, so great is the White House's fear over Iran's intentions that the deals have ridden roughshod over other American strategic concerns such as Israeli fears over arming Arab countries and fears Saudi Arabia has been supporting Sunni militants in Iraq. A senior Pentagon official said the idea was "to deal with what has been a changing strategic threat from Iran and other forces".
The deals will focus on improvements to the countries' air and missile defence systems and upgrade their navies and air forces giving them a greater strike capability. However, the weapons being sold are mostly defensive and will not boost the countries' offensive military capabilities. Some sales will also cover technology that can turn standard bombs into so-called precision-guided bombs of the type common with US forces.
The deals are the culmination of months of diplomacy. Details will be announced ahead of trips this week to the Middle East by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defence Secretary Robert Gates.
The deals raise various strategic questions for America. The first is how to placate traditional allies Israel and Egypt, both of whom have their own concerns about arming Gulf states. The salve to those concerns appears to be fresh new military aid packages of their own. Israel, according to the New York Times, is going to get a US$30.5 billion military aid package over the next 10 years. That figure is much higher than had originally been planned. Egypt too will get a new 10-year deal, worth US$13 billion.
However, the huge flood of arms into the region is likely to cause serious concerns that Washington is supporting an arms race by sending hi-tech weapons to the rivals of Iran. Such a move will likely undermine diplomatic efforts in the region and spur Tehran even further in its quest for greater military power and developing its nuclear programme.
Others will criticise the White House for sending weapons to a region whose governments could easily collapse and thus leave American weapons in the hands of Islamic militants. The flow of arms to Saudi Arabia is of particular concern. Not only are some Saudi factions likely supporters of Sunni insurgents in neighbouring Iraq, there is also a fear that the Saudi royal family could one day fall prey to an Islamic revolution.
If that happens the new weapons could end up being used by radicals against Western interests. Israeli officials and their supporters in Washington have been reported as lobbying against the Gulf deal but they have been overruled by an Administration keen to counter Iranian interest as its highest priority.
SAUDI ARABIA
* US$20 billion ($26 billion) arms sales package over 10 years.
* Other countries in discussion with the United States about arms sales include Sunni states the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.
* The arms include advanced weaponry, missile guidance systems, upgraded fighter jets and naval ships.
* The Saudis would get satellite-guided JDAM bombs for the first time.
* The deal is seen to be an attempt to counter the regional threat posed by Shiite Iran.
EGYPT
* US$13 billion military aid over 10 years.
ISRAEL
* US$30.5 billion military aid over 10 years.
