Bush rating at lowest point ever

1.00pm - By RUPERT CORNWELL

WASHINGTON - President George Bush's battle to return to the White House has been dealt a severe blow with the release of a poll showing his job rating at its lowest point ever.

According to the latest New York Times/CBS poll, Mr Bush's job rating has fallen to the lowest of his term, with just 42 per cent approving of his performance, compared to 51 per cent who disapprove.

And while the President was making a speech on the sunlit shores of the Bosphorus extolling the virtues of a free and democratic Iraq, a separate survey showed that the transfer of power in Baghdad is regarded by Americans as a failure rather than a success.

A CNN/Gallup poll found that six out of 10 people believed that Monday's hasty handover, at a moment when Iraq remained so perilous, was a sign of failure, compared with just a third who regarded it as a sign of success.

And even if the situation improves on the ground after the installation of interim prime minister Iyad Allawi, major questions remain about Mr Bush's handling of the war, challenging his image of straight-dealing and plain talking.

Of those polled by the New York Times and CBS, 59 per cent said Mr Bush was hiding something in his public statements on Iraq, compared to 18 per cent who thought he was telling the full truth. A further 20 per cent considered that the President was "mostly lying."

By a more than three to one margin, Americans think that the risk of terrorist attacks against the US has increased, rather than decreased, as a result of the March 2003 invasion - flatly contradicting Mr Bush's assertions that the removal of Saddam Hussein had made the world a safer place. By a similar margin, they say that the US involvement in Iraq is breeding, not eliminating, terrorists.

But Mr Bush's sagging approval ratings - now on a par with those of other incumbent Presidents defeated since 1950 - do not mean the poll is a hosanna to John Kerry.

Almost 40 per cent of those surveyed have no opinion of the Democratic challenger. Among those who do, more disapprove of Mr Kerry than approve, a sign that the barrage of negative advertising by the Bush/Cheney campaign depicting him as an untrustworthy flipflopper, has had an impact.

Despite the stream of bad news for the White House on Iraq, the pre-war WMD [weapons of mass destruction] intelligence, and its pre 9/11 alertness to the al Qaeda threat, Mr Kerry only leads the President by a statistically insignificant 45 per cent to 44 per cent in the CBS/Times poll.

If independent Ralph Nader is included, Mr Bush holds a 43/42 point lead among registered voters, with Mr Nader at 5 per cent.

In the next few weeks however, Mr Kerry will have his real chance to make an impact, first with the unveiling of a vice-Presidential running mate expected in early July, and then with his prime time speech on July 29 to the Democratic nominating convention.

Mr Kerry is hoping that next month's Boston gathering will give the same boost to his candidacy as the triumphant New York convention in 1992 which formally launched the Bill Clinton/Al Gore ticket. Mr Clinton emerged from the convention with a 30-point lead over then incumbent President Bush senior - a lead he never lost even when the maverick third party candidate Ross Perot re-entered the race.

Mr Kerry's deliberations over his running mate are cloaked in secrecy. The three most widely tipped contenders are Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, former House majority leader Richard Gephardt, and Tom Vilsack, the Democratic governor of Iowa.

- INDEPENDENT