Britain's election on a 'knife-edge' as last poll shows Tory lead cut to five points

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Photo / AP

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned the general election is "on a knife edge" as the Telegraph's final poll of the campaign shows that the Conservatives' lead has shrunk to just 5 per cent.

With the result now "too close to call", the exclusive Savanta ComRes survey puts the Conservatives on 41 per cent ahead of Labour on 36 per cent, the smallest Tory lead since mid-October.

The result would give the Prime Minister a narrow majority of just six although the poll predicts a hung parliament as a "plausible" outcome.

Conservative party leader Boris Johnson exits the cab after driving the JCB through a symbolic wall with the Conservative Party slogan 'Get Brexit Done'. Photo / AP

Issuing a final rallying call as all three party leaders made the final push in what has been dubbed 'the most important election in a generation', Johnson said: "This election is our chance to end the gridlock but the result is on a knife-edge".

As he tried to recreate the spirit of 2012 with a final speech at the Copper Box arena in the Olympic Park in Stratford, he issued a last minute appeal to voters, saying: "A great future is there within our grasp, but I need your vote. Even if you have never voted Conservative before, this is your chance to be heard and I promise I will not let you down.

"Vote today to break the gridlock. Vote to get Brexit done. Vote to unleash Britain's potential. Enough is enough. Let's get it done."

It came as Jeremy Corbyn urged voters to "shock the establishment" and "back change" as he ended his campaign with a whirlwind 464-mile tour of marginal seats from Glasgow to Bedford.

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn gestures at the end of an eve of poll rally in London. Photo / AP

Last night a Goldman Sachs analysis suggested that a Labour victory could hit British businesses to the tune of £130 billion ($261b).

While Mr Johnson clocked up 727km criss-crossing the country in seven bus journeys and two flights from Bradford to Southend on Sea, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson was accused of a "half-hearted" campaign finale, travelling just 87km between seats in London and Surrey.

The leaders' last hurrah could prove crucial with one in six (17 per cent) voters saying they could still change their mind, according to the poll.

The survey also found that more than one in five voters (22 per cent) intending to vote Labour would not like to see Jeremy Corbyn leading a majority government - suggesting that they are holding their noses and voting tactically.

Seventeen per cent of voters said they would consider leaving the country if Corbyn became Prime Minister while almost one in seven (13 per cent) said they would consider selling financial investments.

The latest voting intention currently puts the Conservatives on the lead with 41 per cent and Labour on 36 per cent, a three percentage point increase on the Savanta ComRes survey published in the Sunday Telegraph five days ago.

In 2017, the pollster showed a narrowing of the Conservative lead over the course of the campaign but the final poll showed a 10 point Tory lead on the eve of the election that turned out to have no overall winner. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent, the SNP are on 4 per cent, the Brexit Party are on 3 per cent, the Greens are on 2 per cent and other parties are on 2 per cent.

Liberal Democrats Party leader Jo Swinson has been accused of running a "half-hearted" campaign. Photo / AP

If the parties were to achieve these vote shares, it would result in Conservatives having a majority of six (Con 328, Lab 245, LD 15, SNP 41, Brex 0, PC 2, Grn 1) according to Electoral Calculus.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of Savanta ComRes said: "There is a huge range of possible outcomes, from a hung parliament to a robust Tory majority. The final Savanta ComRes poll of the campaign points to large numbers of reluctant Labour supporters, probably voting tactically but doing so without wanting to usher in a Corbyn-led majority government.

"A striking feature of this election is the large proportion of voters who simply cannot decide or may change who they vote for. Given the tightness of the battle, what those one in six undecided voters choose to do will almost certainly have a profound impact on the result and therefore on the future of this country.

"There is clearly a lot of unease or possibly fear at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. A sizeable minority would consider selling assets or even fleeing the country, including almost one in five 18 to 34 year-olds, raising inevitable concerns about a possible future brain drain."

The poll shows that the broad picture has not changed with the Tories holding on to most 2016 Leave voters, while Labour have about half the Remain vote and one in five Leave voters.

It predicts that the Lib Dems will likely improve on their 2017 performance but not enough to break through as they are only attracting one in five Remain voters - the same proportion as the Tories.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson says this election is on a knife-edge. Photo / AP

Significantly, more than one in five voters (22 per cent) intending to vote Labour did not select the option of Jeremy Corbyn leading a majority government when asked what they would like to see on Friday morning. Just six per cent of Tory voters said the same about Boris Johnson.

Across all the options on offer, from a Johnson-led majority to a Corbyn and SNP coalition, 42 per cent would rather see the Prime Minister stay in Downing Street compared to 40 per cent who want to see the Labour leader take the keys to Number 10.

Asked how firmly they had mind up their mind about how they would vote on Thursday, 76 per cent said they were confident they knew who they were voting for while one in ten (11 per cent) think they know but say they could change their mind.

One in twenty (6 per cent) say they are currently undecided about which party to vote for, suggesting 17 per cent of voters could still change their mind at the ballot box.

Couriers load election boxes onto a truck to be distributed throughout Northern Ireland for today's election. Photo / AP

Asked to imagine waking up on Friday morning to find that Jeremy Corbyn has become Prime Minister, 17 per cent said they would consider leaving the country, 10 per cent said they would consider selling assets such as property. and seven per cent said they would consider selling business assets.

Savanta ComRes interviewed  2,051 British adults online on December 9-10, 2019.

What would a hung parliament mean?

What is a hung parliament?
When no party has won enough seats to have a majority in the House of Commons. With 650 seats in the British House of Commons, a government needs the support of 326 MPs to have an overall majority. However, since Sinn Féin MPs don't take their seats and abstain from voting in Parliament, the practical threshold for a Westminster majority is actually less than this.

If no one gets a majority, who will be prime minister?
In a hung parliament, the incumbent prime minister stays in office until it is decided who will attempt to form a new government.

How is that decided?
According to the Cabinet Manual, the closest thing Britain has to a rulebook here, the incumbent PM is entitled to attempt to form a government then stay in office until Parliament meets, when he can ask MPs to approve his Queen's Speech.

Does a hung parliament mean a coalition government?
Not necessarily. A new prime minister could seek a confidence-and-supply deal with smaller allies. There's also the option of a minority coalition, where the governing party makes a formal agreement with a smaller party but together they still don't have a majority, meaning they have to seek support in the Commons for every vote.

Finally, a party that lacks a majority could simply try to go it alone and govern as a minority government, vulnerable to being voted down at any time.