Britain faces a Europe with far more at stake

British Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday signed the letter that starts the process. Photo / Kirsty Wigglesworth

In the bitter breakup between Britain and the European Union, the Britons have finally filed the divorce papers. But the 27 spurned partner nations of Europe may have far more at stake.

French leaders are fearful of their own insurgent anti-EU forces, who will chalk up any British gain from the divorce settlement as a reason to file exit papers of their own.

Italian leaders are combating anti-establishment parties who may gang up to hold a Brexit-style referendum. And surging anti-EU campaigners elsewhere are eager to press any advantage they see from the negotiations, which start after the formal notice from Downing Street.

British Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday signed the letter that starts the process, and the historic document was hand-delivered by a senior diplomat to European Council President Donald Tusk overnight.

The decision triggers a two-year clock before Britain drops down the EU escape hatch. In the meantime, the two sides will haggle over such matters as the cost of the exit - upward of US$65 billion, the European Union says - and whether British retirees can keep living under Spain's golden sun.

The British are hoping that Europe will go easy on them to soften any hit to fragile economies. But with EU unity at stake, Brussels can hardly afford to be kind, leaders say.

The outcome may be a jarring wake-up call to British leaders who say that Brexit will give the country back its rightful place as one of the world's eminent powers.

"The UK remains a partner of the Union, but by necessity it will pay the consequences, because that is the choice it has made," French President Franois Hollande said at a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the treaty that laid the foundation for the European Union.

Hollande is trying to thwart the surging anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen, whose rat-a-tat nationalistic call to arms has made her the most popular politician in France ahead of presidential elections in April and May.

Even if she ultimately falls short of the Elyse Palace, she will remain a ballot-box threat who will stiffen the spine of whichever French leader negotiates Britain's March 2019 departure.

Leaders elsewhere in Europe are facing similar concerns - and in a bloc notable for its fractious disputes in recent years, they have been unusually unified in taking a tough line against Britain.

Any new deal between the European Union and Britain will have to be ratified by all of Europe's parliaments, giving extra leverage to the toughest holdouts.

"In order to maintain Europe in the long term, but above all to strengthen Europe in the long term, we must preserve and defend the achievements of European integration," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week.

It was a gentle but unmistakable reminder that Europe's most powerful leader is committed to preserving club benefits for EU members - but cutting them off for those who no longer want to pay the dues.

Britain's international trading relationships and laws will all be on the line. Even Britain's integrity as a single country could be in question if Scotland holds a second independence referendum, because Scottish voters favoured remaining in the EU.

The Scottish Parliament yesterday voted in favour of seeking another referendum, setting the stage for a clash between the British prime minister and the first minister of Scotland.

The minority Scottish National Party government and the Scottish Greens supported it, giving advocates for Scottish independence parliamentary authority for a referendum. But holding a binding referendum still requires approval from London.

Analysts think the downside cost of a bad deal - or, even worse, no deal - would be considerable for Britain. About half of its international trade runs through the EU, and its trading relationships outside the bloc are governed by the body's rules.

Economists have warned that a bad outcome could seriously harm the world's fifth-largest economy.