Berlusconi plays risky bet by not conceding

Silvio Berlusconi

MILAN - Will he or will he not make the phone call?

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has yet to concede defeat despite a ruling by Italy's highest court that upheld Romano Prodi's whisker-thin victory in the nation's closest election.

"He hasn't phoned me yet," Prodi said after yesterday's court verdict. "But I'm waiting, waiting, waiting."

Berlusconi has refused to follow the lead of Democrat Al Gore, who in 2000 called George W. Bush the day after the US Supreme Court denied a hand count of disputed ballots to congratulate his rival and urge the nation to unite.

No such concession from Italy's defeated prime minister, whose motto during the 10 days since the voting ended has been resist, resist, resist -- to the irritation of Prodi and the worry of many political analysts.

"I'm just amazed that Mr. Berlusconi has not conceded yet," said political scientist Franco Pavoncello, president of Rome's John Cabot University. "It's not very good for the country."

The answer to why Berlusconi continues to resist lies in a mix of factors, from the sheer closeness of the election results to power politics during Italy's month-long transition period.

Legal manoeuvres by Berlusconi's allies to have Prodi's winning margin overturned reflect their persistent, if dwindling, hope that some error will be found to turn the tide.

Sandro Bondi, coordinator of Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, noted the supreme court's ruling did not apply to the more than 1 million cancelled ballots that went to neither side. Berlusconi believes a regional court or parliamentary commission could intervene before Prodi takes power in May.

The very tightness of the electoral result -- fewer than 25,000 out of 38 million votes separated the two in the lower house -- allows Berlusconi to try to cast a permanent shadow of doubt on the legitimacy of Prodi's claim to power.

"The prime minister has decided to contest the result and to use a 'mutilated victory' as a long-term weapon," political analyst Massimo Franco wrote in Corriere della Sera newspaper.

Berlusconi's bloc actually won more votes in the fight for the upper house, Senate. But in an ironic twist, the electoral law that Berlusconi pushed through parliament just before the polls handed Prodi a two-seat majority in that chamber.

What is more, Berlusconi's Forza Italia remained the nation's biggest party, while Prodi has no party.

"Prodi has won but so has Berlusconi," constitutional expert Giovanni Sartori wrote.

Berlusconi's reluctance to bow to the numbers could also reflect worries, often expressed by him during the acrimonious campaign, that a victorious centre left could seek to punish him by forcing him to choose between politics and his media empire.

"We have some concerns," Fedele Confalonieri, chairman of the Mediaset broadcasting group controlled by Berlusconi's family, said today.

Berlusconi, who in the past decade has been involved in a series of court cases tied to his business dealings, has voiced concern that once out of power he could be more vulnerable to new judicial moves against him.

By withholding his recognition of Prodi, Berlusconi hopes to exercise maximum leverage in the post-election division of spoils, including the leadership of both houses of parliament, that takes place before the new premier formally takes power.

Even the Italian presidency has been mentioned by Forza Italia coordinator Bondi, who in a magazine interview this week floated the notion of Prodi as prime minister and Berlusconi as president after Carlo Azeglio Ciampi's term ends on May 18.

Berlusconi stands no chance of becoming president, but Bondi's comment makes clear the centre right expects some payback for its stronger-than-expected election showing.

No one expects Berlusconi to refuse to hand over the keys to Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister's office. But a permanent questioning of Prodi's legitimacy has its dangers.

Editorialist Stefano Folli put it bluntly in business daily Il Sole 24 Ore: "To continue declaring or insinuating that the new parliament is not legitimate would be a very serious step, such as to create instability and permanent disorder."

- REUTERS