Battle of Karbala Gap looms - or maybe it's all a ruse

11.30pm - by JOHN LICHFIELD

The first frontal battles between US troops and Republican Guards could occur this weekend - even though military experts believe that a Battle for Baghdad may be several weeks away.

Senior allied officers today predicted an imminent battle between the US third infantry division and the Medina and Hammurabi divisions of Republican Guards for control of the Karbala Gap, a strip of land 40km wide which is the key to the approach to the Iraqi capital from the southwest.

US and British planes pounded the Guards positions for a second day today as the 20,000 US troops and their tanks moved up the west bank of the river Euphrates from Najaf, apparently preparing for an attack.

General Mike Jackson, Chief of the British General Staff, said: "The conventional fight…with the Republican Guard is not too far away I suspect."

Senior US commanders in the field have also told American correspondents that the Karbala Gap – described as "the last stepping stone to Baghdad" – would be their next objective. Military experts counselled scepticism, warning that the military briefings may be intended to confuse the Iraqis and that the first blow could, therefore, fall elsewhere.

In any case, the experts said, the US was unlikely to launch its main assault on Baghdad until the first armoured reinforcements arrived from the US in two to three weeks' time. The US has only 40,000 to 50,000 fighting troops immediately south of Baghdad and relatively little armour although it has achieved total air superiority.

Some form of early victory over the Republican Guards would, however, be of immense propaganda value to the allies in their attempts to calm jittery public opinion at home and convince Iraqis that the Saddam Hussein regime is doomed. The capture of the Karbala Gap, a densely populated strip of marshes and farmland between the Euphrates and the large Lake Razaza, would give the Americans command of the open plains south of Baghdad.

Fierce fighting continued today much farther south, around An Nasiriyah, and to the east, near Ad Diwaniyah, as US marines came under attack once again from flying columns of Iraqi "irregular" troops, seeking to harrass supply lines and slow the American advance. Four US marines were reported missing after fighting near An Nasiryah.

Most units of the US third infantry division were said, however, to be well north of the town of An Najaf, advancing towards Karbala, which is only 80km from the capital.

"The Karbala Gap is the most direct route to Baghdad," a senior US officer told the New York Times. "It is a choke point. Once we go through, it allows us more freedom of movement between the cities of Karbala and Najaf. Once through, we have more effective range for our weapons. It allows us to target or monitor the Medina and the Hammurabi Divisions and allows us to cover the city of Baghdad itself."

Such open talk about military plans caused some experts to express scepticism. The verbal concentration on Karbala may be an attempt to confuse the Iraqis, they suggested.

Other US military sources indicated, however, that they thought that the Gap itself was relatively lightly defended and that the Guards were dug in mostly in the plains beyond. The US might therefore be building up the importance of Karbala in the expectation of a relatively easy advance.

The problem – as elsewhere – may be the holy city of Karbala itself (it is the site of the death of Imam Hussein, a Shi martyr and grandson of the prophet Mohammed). US troops by-passed cities farther south, such as An Nasirayha and An Najaf, only to find themselves under constant attack from flying columns of Iraqi irregular troops, secret police and conscripted civilians (described today by US Central Command as "terrorist-style death-squads").

The precise strength of the Republican Guards divisions defending the Gap is unclear. Each guards division has around 15,000 men. Elements of both divisions, regarded as the best in the Iraqi army, are thought to be positioned elsewhere. They have been under constant attack from the air – sand-storms permitting – for six days. According to one US intelligence report, desertions and transfers of Republican Guards to stiffen other units in the south may have reduced their strength to 60 per cent.

Comments on Wednesday by the Iraqi defence minister suggest that the Guards may, in any case, not stand and fight the Americans in the open but funnel back into Baghdad itself. Sultan Hashim Ahmed said that Iraqi strategy was to allow the US to encircle the capital and then draw the Americans into street-to-street fighting.

- INDEPENDENT

Herald Feature: Iraq war