Baghdad stampede provokes civil war fears

There are fears that the stampede on the Imams bridge in Baghdad could be the event that causes Iraq's long-suffering Shia community to take up arms against the Sunni-led insurgents and start a full-scale civil war.

Sunni leaders were anxiously trying to calm the situation last night as emotions ran high after the pilgrim stampede.

Defence Minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi, a Sunni Arab himself, insisted on television that "what happened has nothing at all to do with any sectarian tension".

Yet temperatures have been rising by the day. Even moderates in the minority Sunni community are fuming over the draft constitution, which was rammed through at the beginning of the week by the dominant Shia and Kurdish communities represented in the drafting committee.

The 15 Sunnis on the committee rejected the draft, which looked likely to further inflame the sectarian tensions because of its insistence on federalism.

The Sunnis are worried about Iraq - which they had ruled under Saddam Hussein - being carved up by the Kurds and Shias whose regions are home to the country's oil wealth.

The Shias came late to federalism, but seeing the Kurds' insistence on retaining their autonomy in the northern region which they have enjoyed since 1991, they realised they had an oil card to play too.

The next step along the rocky road is supposed to be a constitutional referendum on 15th October, prior to elections in December that will produce a new Iraqi parliament and allow the US-led coalition to withdraw the 150,000 troops still in Iraq.

The Sunnis are already out campaigning for a No vote.

The Americans' hopes of tweaking the draft constitution to obtain some sort of Sunni endorsement appear doomed.

Iraq's Shiites have showed remarkable restraint as the bombings have gone on.

They have been systematically targeted by Sunni militants and the terrorists of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, as he attempts to trigger fullscale war between the two communities.

The question now is: how much longer will the Shia restraint last?

- INDEPENDENT