Bachmann and Perry showdown could split evangelical vote

The battle for the "Bible belt", one of the most crucial constituencies in the Republican White House race, will begin in earnest in Waterloo, Iowa, today.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann changed her diary to attend a speech to be given by Texas Governor Rick Perry, setting up an early showdown between two Christian evangelicals.

The importance of the evangelical vote is huge, representing an estimated 40 per cent of Republicans who will vote in the Iowa caucus. Iowa, as the first of the contests, matters - helping to propel candidates to the front of the race and seeing others heading for oblivion.

Bachmann has received the endorsement of more than 100 pastors and Christian leaders in the state in the past week alone. But Perry's entry upsets her calculations. He is both a politician and part-time preacher, the kind of Southerner who appeals to the Christian right. "Perry's entry shifts the dynamic," said Steve King, a right-wing congressman from Iowa, who was speaking at the Iowa state fair.

King is close to Bachmann but said he would not endorse anyone until after Labour Day, on September 5.

Other Republicans in the race such as Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain have made bids for the Christian right, but it is Bachmann who appears to have won them over with her extreme anti-gay rhetoric and strong views on abortion and other social issues. Perry, however, may be more than a match for her. He arrives fresh from a prayer rally last weekend at a stadium in Houston, Texas, that attracted 30,000 participants and was backed by evangelical leaders in Texas, Mississippi and elsewhere in the south.

The influence of those Southern leaders, who head megachurches, run networks of radio stations and have access to millions of dollars in funds, extends into Iowa and other midwest Bible belt states.

One danger for the Republican right is that Bachmann and Perry could split the evangelical vote, allowing Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, to win Iowa.

Romney, though right of centre, is detested by the Tea Party movement and seen as a flip-flopper who made too many concessions as governor. He is regarded as inconsistent on social issues, and, for some on the Christian right, another negative is that he is a Mormon.

King agreed that a Perry-Bachman fight could split the vote and let Romney through. "That is possible. There are many scenarios. That is the likely one," he said.

The return to a pivotal place in US politics for the Christian evangelicals comes after a short gap in which social issues, so dominant in the Bush era, with battles over abortion, gay rights and stem cell research, were pushed to the side by concerns over the economy. Gay rights and abortion were not issues in the 2008 election between Barack Obama and his Republican rival, John McCain.

- OBSERVER