Australia's most senior spy has confirmed the war in Iraq increased the nation's profile as a terrorist target, helped al Qaeda's global recruitment campaign and possibly won new followers within Australia.
But in a rare public speech, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation director-general Dennis Richardson also said the worst thingthe United States-led coalition could now do would be to withdraw from Iraq.
"That would embolden militant Islamists globally and could lead to the establishment, in parts of Iraq, of Afghanistan-type safe havens for terrorists, in which training and other rebuilding could occur unhindered," he told the Sydney Institute.
"At this stage, we have more to lose if the US-led coalition gives up, than if it stays with the proper resourcing and commitment."
Richardson's assessment on one hand supports Prime Minister John Howard's contention that Australia was a target well before Iraq.
However, on the other, it undermines the Government's denials that the war has increased the danger of terrorism.
He said even a United Nations-brokered solution to the stand-off with Saddam Hussein would not have shaken al Qaeda's plans for a global campaign of terror.
All attacks outside Iraq during and since the war - including the Madrid bombings and the blast at Australia's Jakarta embassy on September 9 - would have occurred regardless of the conflict.
The Iraqi terrorist leader al Zarqawi, believed to be responsible for the car bomb that injured three Australian soldiers on Monday, had a long history in terror and shared Osama bin Laden's ideology.
"It would be naive in the extreme to assume, but for Iraq, al Zarqawi would be at peace with the world," Richardson said.
"For him, Iraq is a convenient killing field: if not Iraq, it would be elsewhere."
But Richardson said Iraq had provided al Qaeda with propaganda and recruitment opportunities and it stood to reason they would have some success.
He said the war had also provided another self-justification for terrorism, and had increased the threat of it against Australian interests in the Middle East.
But so far Iraq had not significantly increased the danger of attack within Australia.
