Australian boat arrivals slowed

Others, especially Labor, credit the so-called Papua New Guinea solution introduced by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd before the election. Photo / NZPA

Turning the Coalition's best known three-word slogan into reality was always going to be a tough ask for the Abbott Government in Australia.

But the early indications are that its efforts to "stop the boats" appear to be having an affect on a record flow of asylum seekers.

While Immigration Minister Scott Morrison likes to keep secret many of the details of border security operations, he talks up the statistics. He points out that boat arrival numbers have dropped by 75 per cent since his Operation Sovereign Borders began after the September 7 election.

But that won't stop 2013 being a record year for what are officially described as "illegal arrivals".

Up to mid-November, 291 boats carrying 20,188 asylum seekers arrived in Australian waters - up from the previous year's total of 278 boats and 17,204 passengers.

Morrison argues it's his military-style operation, headed by a three-star general, that is responsible for the late-year drop-off in numbers.

Others, especially Labor, credit the so-called Papua New Guinea solution introduced by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd before the election.

A week-by-week analysis of arrivals between July and November lends weight to that view.

It reveals a downward trend, from an initial peak of a dozen boats a week to three complete weeks of no boats during October and early November.

As far as Morrison is concerned, the secrecy surrounding Sovereign Borders is a deliberate strategy to stop information getting to people smugglers and their potential clients. "We're not a shipping news service," he says when asked for specific details of interceptions.

The outlook though is not as rosy as the Government likes to make out.

The fallout from a spying scandal has ended, for the time being, the co-operation of Jakarta. Indonesian national police are adopting a hands-off approach to people smugglers. The Prime Minister hopes good relations will be restored by the time the monsoon season - a no-go period for boat travel - ends in February.

The Abbott Government also faces budgetary pressures with the cost of running offshore detention centres blowing out by A$1.2 billion ($1.3 billion). Offshore processing of asylum seekers will cost A$2 billion over the next four years.

- AAP