Aussie maverick the architect of US war strategy

At his Senate confirmation hearing, General Stanley McChrystal, the US commander sent to turn the tide of war in Afghanistan, was asked if he would be seeking advice from David Kilcullen.

"Yes I will," he said to nods of approval. "David Kilcullen is a friend of mine, I think he talks a lot of sense."

The name would not have meant much to people outside the closed world of the military, diplomats and politicians. But, away from the limelight, Kilcullen, an Australian Army colonel, has been hugely influential in shaping recent policies in the "war on terror". He will help fashion the new strategy in Afghanistan, at a defining moment in the conflict.

Yesterday, Kilcullen warned politicians in Washington and London, the two main allies in the battle against the Teleban, that they must steel themselves for a decade of hard combat on the battlefields of Afghanistan to avoid catastrophic failure.

Kilcullen was counter-insurgency adviser to both Condoleezza Rice when she was US Secretary of State and General David Petraeus, helping the US commander plot the "surge" which reduced the level of carnage in Iraq. He ended up with the grand and convoluted title of Chief Strategist in the Office of the Co-ordinator for Counterterrorism.

His recent book, The Accidental Guerilla, is being avidly studied by British and American military bound for Afghanistan.

Kilcullen, who holds a PhD in anthropology, was "borrowed" in 2004 by Paul Wolfowitz, then Deputy Defence Secretary and an architect of the Iraq war. However, during his subsequent rise through the US hierarchy the Australian has paid little lip service to neo-con tenets. On one occasion he was quoted in a magazine, the American Independent, saying the Iraq war was "******* stupid". He received a telephone call from his boss, Rice, stressing that people like Dick Cheney were most displeased, and a public clarification must be issued. This duly came with Kilcullen saying: "I can categorically state that the word '*******' was said off the record."

Another call from Rice: "David, David this is not what we meant at all."

Afghanistan, Kilcullen points out, is a very different war morally, historically and logistically. "Perhaps the most stupid thing about Iraq was invading the country in the first place," he says over dinner, during a visit to London.

"But we were where we were in Iraq and what we tried to do was try and end the terrible bloodshed, protect the people. This was General Petraeus's plan. I think it worked to a large extent."

Kilcullen, who has now left US government service, insists that although Western forces are on borrowed time in Afghanistan there is still hope of turning the war around.

He believes, however, that Nato is making major mistakes, the most serious being the use of unmanned drones to carry out targeted killings in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "It is a strategic error to personalise the conflict in this way, it'll strengthen the enemy and weaken our friends. How can one expect the civilian population to support us if we kill their families and destroy their homes."

What the West risks throwing away, he says, is the "support of the vast majority of the people".

"It is no exaggeration to say this is a critical year in Afghanistan. If we don't get it right then we may not succeed. But the good thing is that the Americans are now focusing on Afghanistan. It may be late, but they are focusing."

Kilcullen was among those who persuaded the US administration that one could not address Afghanistan without getting involved in Pakistan.

"What will happen in Pakistan is absolutely critical."

- INDEPENDENT