Au revoir et bienvenu

France's President and Candidate for re-election in 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy, waves to supporters after he delivered his speech during a campaign meeting, in Toulon, southern France. Photo / AP

So farewell, Nicolas Sarkozy. If he is to be believed - and abrupt changes of direction are part of his charm - Sarkozy will now seek a new life outside politics. He told journalists privately as long ago as January: "If I lose, you won't be seeing me again ... I will go off and make some money."

Sarkozy, 57, has been a professional politician since he became mayor of his home town, the super-wealthy Parisian suburb of Neuilly, aged 28.

Elected President in 2007, he promised to be an exciting, can-do leader who would drag the old country into the 21st century while preserving the best of French national identity. Now he leaves office as one of his country's most unpopular leaders since France switched to presidential politics 50 years ago.

Sarkozy wanted to break the mould of French politics and French society. He wanted, as Margaret Thatcher did in Britain in the 1980s, to mess with the mind of France: to make the country more outward-looking, more confident and more entrepreneurial.

As recently as February, he invited Chancellor Angela Merkel to be his de facto running mate and argued that France should be more like Germany. He ended up fighting for political survival by aping the navel-gazing, ultra-nationalist language, themes and tactics of the far-right National Front.

Historians will decide whether the people of France defeated his plans to drag the country into the 21st century; or whether Sarkozy proved to be a man who did not understand France and could not lead his country through a time of crisis and shifts in global economic power.

In one sense, Sarkozy is just another victim of the financial crisis. He will also be seen as a victim of his attempts to shrink the sprawling French state. In truth, though his pension reform was courageous, his other attempted reforms were modest.

But Sarkozy's deep unpopularity began before the crisis. His poll ratings plunged from the high 60s (a new record) in mid-2007 to the high 30s (another record) in early 2008. The intervening period was a blur of a divorce, a marriage to Carla Bruni, and outbreaks of unpresidential behaviour, such as fiddling with his cellphone in the presence of the Pope and exchanging insults with members of the public.

Sarkozy promised the French people his presidency would be all about them; they rapidly concluded that it was mostly about him.

There is another explanation for Sarkozy's unpopularity. He ignored the basic rule of French presidential politics. He tried to be his own de facto prime minister. French prime ministers are like medieval lord chamberlains - there to be hated. The president, shielded by the prime minister, traditionally enjoys an indulgence in the hearts of the people.

There were good Sarkozy moments: his leadership of the European Union in 2008; his co-leadership with British Prime Minister David Cameron during the Libyan conflict.

But he leaves France weaker, more divided and more muddled than he found it. His disgraceful campaign in recent weeks - appealing to racial and religious tensions - may do lasting damage to French society and politics. His own centre-right party, the Union Pour un Mouvement Populaire, could divide between the moderates, who secretly detested Sarkozy's campaign, and the populists, who adored it.

What will he do next? He may go back to his other career as a business lawyer. His specialty was advising French companies how to move factories abroad. In recent weeks, he has campaigned for French and European "economic nationalism". Consistency has never been one of Sarkozy's obsessions.

- Independent